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Lots of questions about impact of Brexit on NI & prospects for reunification with Ireland... A political question beyond my specific scientific qualifications, though on which I am as entitled to hold an informed opinion as anyone else. So here are a few thoughts:
1) Whole point of GFA was to create environment in which cross-community relations could be improved under conditions of relative peace & stability. Even regardless of immediate economic damage of Johnson's new trade border, Brexit has already undermined that longterm goal. How?
2) Even if GFA never technically required UK to remain in the EU, the conditions for effective peace process substantially depended on common UK and IRL membership. Anything but softest of soft Brexits was bound to be a problem. So Tories' extremist Brexit is especially damaging.
3) Johnson's policies, deals included, have magnified sectarian identity politics. Imposing Irish Sea borders that stoke loyalist fears. Reinforcing links to EU that raise republican hopes. Creating uncertainty and inflaming tension. Reducing incentive to make GF settlement work.
4) B'tards, yes. But does that mean reunification = best / easy solution? I'm a Northern nationalist, so I share the longterm aspiration of a reunited Ireland. But only under the right conditions and not at the risk of serious economic, social and political damage. For example:
5) We know what a bad idea it is to make fundamental changes based on a bitterly divisive 50-50 vote. In NI, that applies x100 times. So reunification should be built on substantial cross-community support, representing a clear majority of entire population & reaching out to rest
6) And reunification will only work if the Republic is in a strong position to manage and accommodate it. It will cost a lot of money. It will need a lot of adjustments. Maybe significant constitutional change. And also important economic and social reforms, e.g. to healthcare.
7) Point is: GFA was best thing to happen to NI for a long time. Brexit seriously upset fragile conditions needed for GFA to deliver its longterm goals. But there is no easy way out again. Which helps explain profound anger I, & many others, feel for Tory wreckers & DUP enablers.
