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What to make of 1,325 deaths within 28 days of a postive Covid test today
A record on this measure
1) It's bad
2) With 40% not in hospitals, suggests a rising crisis in people's homes and care homes again - that's really bad...
But
A record on this measure
1) It's bad
2) With 40% not in hospitals, suggests a rising crisis in people's homes and care homes again - that's really bad...
But
3) It does need to be put in the context of excess deaths which are running at about 300 a day up to Christmas
4) And since the daily figure was a severe underestimate of the spring peak, this is not a record yet. Excess deaths peaked at about 2,000 a day in April
4) And since the daily figure was a severe underestimate of the spring peak, this is not a record yet. Excess deaths peaked at about 2,000 a day in April
Don't let the more modest excess deaths so far fool anyone into thinking this is mild or like a bad flu year
Since October there have been 19,000 excess deaths in England and Wales. In the last big flu season (2017-18), there were 7,762 in the same period.
Since October there have been 19,000 excess deaths in England and Wales. In the last big flu season (2017-18), there were 7,762 in the same period.
The excess deaths number is likely to rise sharply in the weeks ahead - something to watch - and fear.
The relationship between 28 day after test deaths and excess deaths has not broken down although it is now weaker
why?
The relationship between 28 day after test deaths and excess deaths has not broken down although it is now weaker
why?
a) Because, to date, we haven't had the spring disaster in care homes - which killed 29,000 residents
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19inthecaresectorenglandandwales/deathsoccurringupto12june2020andregisteredupto20june2020provisional
b) Social distancing has kept flu deaths right down this year - some of the people flu would have killed sadly got Covid
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19inthecaresectorenglandandwales/deathsoccurringupto12june2020andregisteredupto20june2020provisional
b) Social distancing has kept flu deaths right down this year - some of the people flu would have killed sadly got Covid
and
c) Some of the most vulnerable people in the UK died in the spring
We should be pleased excess deaths have been much better in the second wave than the first, but that should not make anyone think there isn't a large excess and it implies restrictions aren't necessary
ENDS
c) Some of the most vulnerable people in the UK died in the spring
We should be pleased excess deaths have been much better in the second wave than the first, but that should not make anyone think there isn't a large excess and it implies restrictions aren't necessary
ENDS
