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Early Offseason Dynasty Buy- Nyheim Hines
Hines was the RB15 in PPR leagues in 2020 (RB26 in PPG out of RBs who played over 10 games), and he is not getting the respect he deserves in dynasty. In two recent mocks, Hines was the RB41 & RB50 drafted. That is WAY TOO LOW!
On 37% of the Colts snaps, Hines was
3rd in receptions (all RBs)
5th in catch rate (all RBs)
4th in yards per route run (all RBs)
19th in FP per OPP (all RBs)
3rd in receptions (all RBs)5th in catch rate (all RBs)4th in yards per route run (all RBs)19th in FP per OPP (all RBs)
Some of you may be nervous about Hines because of Jonathan Taylor, but if anything they make a great one-two punch.
Hines weeks 1-12:
PPR Points- 12.6
Rush Attempts- 5.6
Rushing yds- 18.9
Targets- 5
PPR PosRank Projection- RB1
Hines weeks 1-12:
PPR Points- 12.6
Rush Attempts- 5.6
Rushing yds- 18.9
Targets- 5
PPR PosRank Projection- RB1
Hines weeks 13-17 (during JT Breakout):
PPR Points- 11
Rush Attempts- 5.6
Rushing yds- 34.4
Targets- 4.4
PPR PosRank Projection- RB1
PPR Points- 11
Rush Attempts- 5.6
Rushing yds- 34.4
Targets- 4.4
PPR PosRank Projection- RB1
The workload did not slow down for Hines with JT dominating, instead, it maintained. Also, Hines is under a cheap contract for one more year.
The final piece is who will be the QB be for the Colts in 2021? Well to be honest, I do not know. In 2020, the Colts were 5th in RB targets with 25% of their targets going to RBs.
One QB that has been connected with the Colts is Carson Wentz. Wentz with Reich as his OC had a 19.1% target share to RBs. Reich before Rivers has averaged a 19.3% target share to RBs. If the Colts decrease the RB target share from 25% to 19%, RBs would receive 32 fewer targets.
The 32 fewer targets would affect both Hines and JT, and I do not see JT's target share increasing in 2021. NFL teams have realized the importance of not only using 1 RB at all times, so Hines is a valuable part of the team.
I expect Hines in 2021 to be a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3 with huge weekly PPR upside, and in start-ups, you can get him as the RB40 or later. In current SF leagues, you can trade a early to mid-2021 3rd for Hines, which is great for any RB needy team (and is great value too).
Go out and acquire Hines wherever you can, also for all of those that traded a late 2021 2nd for Hines back after week 1 of this year, I still love that deal! https://twitter.com/JSnake_DFF/status/1307426939335053314?s=20
