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@kevverage @rogerlwhite @FraserWhyte81 @scotfax @SteveSayersOne @Janela_X @2351onthelist @Effiedeans Thread:
@ChrisMusson @magnusllewellin @FraserNelson @themajorityscot
@kevverage @rogerlwhite @FraserWhyte81 @scotfax @SteveSayersOne @Janela_X @2351onthelist @Effiedeans Thread:
Having been called a 'fifth columnist' in criticising @Alliance4Unity, I decided to 'do the maths'. I had explained their strategy to 'fight only List seats' was flawed and could only backfire, producing more nationalist MSP's rather than fewer. This thread shows how.
I downloaded the 2016 electoral results from https://www.parliament.scot/msps/98259.aspx , which conveniently includes the formulaic logic, as well as the results for 2016. Anyone seeking a tutorial on the d'Hondt voting system should read the attached from @profhelenwilson
Then I asked the simple question, what happens if votes move from the established parties to A4U? I think I took the reasonable view that NO votes would move from SNP and Green party supporters, only Labour, Lib Dem and Conservative. And as equal %'s.
Following that logic, this is the table of seat results it produced across a 0-30% shift. Note there is not a single example that reduces nationalist representation, but across certain ranges INCREASES it while just shuffling the rest of the mix.
I did find strange that the moves were not continuous (smooth). But a look at detail showed it was the result of what was going on in the 8 different switching models, representing individual regions, in conjunction with residual votes dropping from each calculation.
Other caveats on the specific results are these based on actual 2016 results, not anything that has been projected. And that I assumed equal % shifts. But the logic seems intact, that the A4U electoral strategy is flawed. And I cannot see how it might help.
Hence a plea. Please keep your 'second' vote in the Holyrood elections for the established parties. Remember this is not a lesser vote - just as many MSP's are elected. And let's please keep our energy for winning constituency seats, and defeating nationalists.
On that last count, let's also be clear that we expect our established parties to 'get a room' and work out how they plan to direct their efforts to win more of those constituency seats. My next piece of modelling will be about that.
