Is #tesla overvalued? What is disruption worth? After the recent run in #tsla stock, which made many people (including me) very happy, let's have a look at the wider image of what's happening in the transport industry. A thread:

The world is changing fast and technology impacts every industry on the planet. But so far the car industry has been the same for over hundreds of years, with the only difference is now having Apple Car Play and Android Auto in my internal combustion car.

Tesla changed the game and finally made electric vehicles more diserable, safer, faster, cheaper to operate and more long-lasting than ICE vehicles. Moreover, a Tesla will get better over time with software updates. Technology has finally impacted the auto industry.

Why can't established manufactures just step up and compete with Tesla? The best analogy to draw is looking at what Apple did to the phone industry in 2007. A disruptive product changed the industry and legacy companies died.

Tesla's competitive advantage is being a bunch of successful start-ups: car design, battery tech, battery chemistry, mining, power train, software, chip design hardware, dealership, charger network, insurance. Tesla had 15 years to build this advantage. And that's just cars...

The energy business is overlooked right now and will be obvious over the next years. Photovoltaics, home battery storage, megapacks. And software will make these products even better.

The wild card in Tesla's valuation are autonomous cars. This technology competes with taxi and Uber services in the short term and could make us lose interest in owning a car ourselves in the long term. So far, Tesla is leading the race to achieving full autonomy by a landslide.

The long-term advantage will be in manufacturing. Even though other companies can produce nice cars or great photovoltaics, mass-manufacturing these products and making a profit is what decides the next decade winner. So far, competition is nowhere close

What should Tesla be valued at? If they maintain the speed and keep executing, Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world. But the world is messy and stuff can go wrong. Nobody should tell you how to invest. But if you buy Tesla, keep it long-term.

In my opinion, Tesla is our best shot as humanity to solve the climate problem quicker. The company's mission is amazing. Huge shoutout to @SawyerMerritt @ray4tesla @28delayslater @heydave7 @frank_thelen @GerberKawasaki