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OTD 2020 Iran attacked 2 US airbases in Iraq with ballistic missiles. What happened and what can we learn?
1/12
1/12
The attack was conducted by the IRGC in revenge for the killing of Qasem Soleimani 5 days earlier. Between 16 & 22 short range ballistic missiles were launched in 2 waves an hour apart against Al Asad & Irbil Air Bases. 11 hit Al Asad and one Irbil.
2/12
2/12
There were no fatalities but 110 personnel were injured, 8 requiring aeromedical evacuation to the US and 9 to Germany. Damage was caused to buildings, operating surfaces, tents and aircraft.
3/12
3/12
The lack of fatalities led to claims that Iran had deliberately avoided them, although there is little evidence to support this. Although it was 1:30am, air bases operate H24 and there is no way the IRGC could know its missiles wouldn't hit occupied buildings/areas.
4/12
4/12
The loss of life was avoided because most were in shelters. Iran gave the Iraqis 90 mins notice to Iraq who immediately passed it on, and satellites controlled from Buckley AFB detected the IR launch signature. Early warning, shelters (and luck) saved lives.
5/12
5/12
What can we learn?
First, the need for air bases to have missile defence. At the time of the attack there were no missile defences at Al Asad or Irbil although Patriot batteries were deployed in the days after.
6/12
First, the need for air bases to have missile defence. At the time of the attack there were no missile defences at Al Asad or Irbil although Patriot batteries were deployed in the days after.
6/12
Whilst the best defence against missiles is stopping them being launched in the first place, the IR needs to consider GBAD. Sky Sabre is part of the answer, as are allies, but the UK needs to be comfortable its level of sovereign capability and the risk it's carrying.
7/12
7/12
Second the need to re-learn Cold War disciplines like hardening, dispersion, redundancy and battle damage repair. These are highly effective at minimising and damage and ensuring operations can be sustained/rapidly regenerated.
8/12
8/12
Finally though, we were reminded how resilient air bases are. Assertions of their vulnerability are often overblown by agenda-driven commentators. They assert (correctly) that bases are relatively easy to target but miss how difficult they are to seriously damage.
9/12
9/12
Air bases are big & lend themselves to dispersion which means they can absorb multiple hits; Al Asad was quickly back in action. It would take a massive, sustained effort to keep an airfield out of action & they're impossible to destroy with conventional weapons.
10/12
10/12
There is one final tragic footnote to this episode. Later that day, on high alert expecting retaliation from the US, an Iranian SAM battery shot down a Ukrainian International Airlines 737 which had just taken off from Tehran, killing all 176 people on board.
11/12
11/12
In a tragic echo of the shooting down of Iran Air 655 by USS Vincennes in 1988, which killed 290 people, this illustrates how international crisis coupled with incompetent fire control has tragic consequences. Cool heads & good C2 are paramount.
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