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This is Toby Young ( @toadmeister)'s response to my piece in the @spectator, which he very fairly follows by a frontline account from an in-house senior doctor in London.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/lockdown-sceptics-should-support-this-lockdown
I thought I'd respond briefly to the response: short thread 1/n https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1347441658200260610
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/lockdown-sceptics-should-support-this-lockdown
I thought I'd respond briefly to the response: short thread 1/n https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1347441658200260610
I am still a lockdown sceptic, and Toby sets out very well the principled objections to lockdown that I still believe too. 2/n
I still think the 1st lockdown went on too long, with harms likely to have outweighed the benefits. TikTok punting videos while people missed basic healthcare is revolting.
I don't think the 2nd lockdown was well justified: the arguments that convince me now didn't then. 3/n
I don't think the 2nd lockdown was well justified: the arguments that convince me now didn't then. 3/n
I still think the government messaging was horrific, with the hazard-taped podium terrifying people into dying in droves at home rather than seeking medical care that could have saved them, even when there was clearly capacity. 4/n
I wish that government had tried harder to pursue the focused protection strategy that @uksciencechief outlined in mid-March (and @SunetraGupta explained in late spring).
But there wasn't the political will, they won't pivot and we are where we are. 5/n https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1238399312641613824?s=20
But there wasn't the political will, they won't pivot and we are where we are. 5/n https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1238399312641613824?s=20
I agree that press treatment of reasonable sceptics is offensive. Without scepticism, challenge and scrutiny, God only knows what panicking governments would get away with routinely.
The civil liberties implications still keep me up at night. 6/n
The civil liberties implications still keep me up at night. 6/n
With all that said, and accepting that lockdowns are ethically rebarbative, inequitable and only marginally effective (they are "bad value"): sometimes, you do need that margin, any margin you can get, and sadly I think there is a very strong argument that that time is now. 7/n
Exceeding the NHS's ability to provide basic care would have non-linear impacts that are politically (and I think ethically) unthinkable if there is, almost literally, any way at all to avoid it.
Sometimes you do need to break the glass. 8/n
Sometimes you do need to break the glass. 8/n
Perhaps this metaphor is useful. However much I absolutely hate lockdowns, they can be usefully thought of as a "break glass" short-term emergency response, and sadly I think that time is now.
I think the presence of the vaccine makes the argument much easier to stomach. 9/n
I think the presence of the vaccine makes the argument much easier to stomach. 9/n
I think it is terrific that Toby followed his response with a frontline account from the epicentre, with data, so that his readers can see the argument in context for themselves: thank you @toadmeister 10/n
