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For supply chain folks this was entirely predictable but this BBC story is just another canary in the coal mine before the main event in April; brexit is only just starting. Thread: /1
BBC News - Brexit: Problems grow at UK ports with backlogs and delays https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55583244
BBC News - Brexit: Problems grow at UK ports with backlogs and delays https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55583244
Why April? It's the gap between most winter veg crops finishing but it's too early for most of the spring crops to be harvested. Farmers call it the hungry gap and you can read more about it here: https://www.farmdrop.com/blog/hungry-gap-seasonal-british-produce/ /2
In the UK we are used to our supermarkets being plentifully stocked year round. To solve the problem of the hungry gap, at this time of year supermarkets will fly in produce from around the world - East Africa, Thailand, Mexico, you name it. /3
So what UK veg is available at this time for harvesting? Purple spouting broccoli, wild garlic, rhubarb, spring greens, asparagus, new potatoes, cauliflowers, radishes, lettuces. So no problem right? /4
In reality we do not have sufficient food growing capacity for our population. 47% of our vegetables and 84% of our fruit come from overseas. We import a lot of food, mostly from the EU, mostly by land (because air is very expensive). ( https://foodfoundation.org.uk/covid_19/monitoring-imports-of-fruit-and-veg-into-the-uk/). /5
Remember that April hunger gap. You'll be hearing more from me on it (and maybe some of the media will pick up on it too in late February once it becomes apparent how badly our JIT perishable supply chains have been hit). /6
Parking April's problems for later, let's move to next week's problems. /7
Just before Christmas huge queues of trucks trying to cross the channel in both directions built up. To solve the impact on the inbound perishable food supply chains, the major supermarkets went down the route of a sizeable airlift. /8 ( https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/23/lufthansa-fly-fresh-food-uk-shortage-fears-fruit-vegetables-border-french-blockade
That did the trick; disaster averted, but with drivers having to be tested before they cross the channel and with significant extra (complicated) paperwork involved for customs, it's only a matter of time before those queues rebuild. /9
Already £32k of fines have been issued to drivers without the correct covid or customs paperwork. These trucks - regardless of whether they are deliberately chancing it or innocently making a mistake - get in the way and slow things down further. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-55576018 /10
Brexit upporters may argue everything is working just fine yet an article from the financial times yesterday (Thurs 07/01) says the French are going to tighten up customs checks from next Monday after discovering almost no UK arrivals were compliant. https://www.ft.com/content/6c96911b-204c-4783-9384-a0c3f93ad010 /11
Dover just had a quiet week; many companies drew on stockpiles to avoid crossing the channel; volumes were 50% down on normal. Now it's time for a double whammy; a sharp rise in crossings (due to dwindling stockpiles) coupled with stricter French checks adding more problems. /12
What this means: expect major issues at Manston Airfield and the M20 to be top of our headlines again by (at the latest) Tuesday evening next week. /Fin
