Some quick thoughts on why businesses (even some large businesses) are ill-prepared for Brexit (NB you can file this in the ‘visible from space’ category).

Firstly, let’s consider the scale and nature of the change. A one-off (so far), cliff edge breakage of the UK / EU economic relationship that had developed over more than twenty years to take advantage of the single market.

Oh, and during the height of a global pandemic. With no implementation period. Given the scale, complexity and gravity of the event, significant disruption should be expected.

It is also true that government has exhorted businesses to be ready. But the political tone has been markedly different. Brexit itself heavily promoted as a non disruptive positive benefit. The deal marketed as a great deal to everyone’s benefit.

We have a minister proclaiming there is no border between the UK and NI. We have confident assertions of less red tape. The fisher folk were energetically promoted as Brexit winners. Of course, none of this was accurate, but don’t rush to blame the people who believed the govt.

But it is true that the UK leaving the Single Market and CU and its trade relations with the EU being structured into a thin Canada style deal is not news. And even for smaller businesses twitter is full of kindly trade and customs specialists providing detailed advice.

My view is that many businesses (especially those not very close to the situation - hauliers are a notable exception) did not believe the worst impacts would happen. The deal would be improved. Mitigants would be agreed. There would be an implementation period etc.

It’s also important to understand that recognising the situation might mean taking painful decisions. Businesses may no longer be viable. Factories might need to be relocated. Extra costs may need to be taken. People may need to be sacked. Difficult decisions are often postponed.

Fundamentally, I think many struggle to believe a government would be so careless of the interests of its citizens and businesses. Dream on. The lesson previously learnt by the DUP has now been taught to the fisher folk and many businesses trading with the EU.