This same time year, I started reading the book "Superforecasting" at the beginning of the year. I had not even dreamt of anything called a pandemic. It made me understand the folly of how we see the world and the special people who see it differently and can forecast accurately.

Even those special people had seen the effects of a potential pandemic but didn't see the underbelly of ineptitude in the private and public sector that the pandemic would reveal. It was a stark awakening as entire global industries cratered without a backbone or reserves.

The response as usual was to turn to governments to provide relief. We keep forgetting that the concept of government and national currencies are also based on flawed forecasting and the "pseudoscience" of macroeconomics. We traded one flawed model for another in crisis.

The reason the pandemic has lingered is an uncomfortable truth that we have failed to admit - National governments are far from efficient and barely work. They are usually based on so much compromise and politics that policies are a farce. Decision-making is largely on emotion.

Our accepted "best form of national governance" as we know it which is based on "democracy" is really a scam as there is nothing like true democracy. It is all about large scale manipulation and emotional gymnastics.

We live the lie everywhere because hope is all we have without data. Even when we have data, our interpretations are based on our understanding of how we think the world should function instead of how it truly does. The people who know more about the real world run hedge funds.

We have seen the jokes that vaccine distribution will be more efficient if Amazon handled it. This shouldn't be a joke at all. Amazon is one of the most efficient institutions ever created by man to serve the needs of man. Amazon runs how governments should really serve people.

Amazon's efficiency is not based on internal emotion but raw data crunched to meet our own emotions and needs outside Amazon. The flaw in political governance is that politicians put their needs to survive first before the people they are meant to serve. Hypocrisy abounds.

Hypocrisy is why democracy is flawed. It is why companies took government bailouts but didn't save anything for the rainy day and were floored by a pandemic. All of that hypocrisy is abstracted away now by a new technology based governance layer of parts of the world.

Cryptocurrency and decentralized governance models are not a fluke. They are a correction. Companies deciding to have Bitcoin reserves are a welcome thing because it is outside the flawed monetary system that is controlled by flawed government policy. Nations can fail very easily

What happened at the US Capitol would have been unthinkable 10 years ago. Think of the most improbable thing of the US as a failed state in another 10 years and you will understand why people are looking for hedges uncorrelated with governance and macroeconomics decisionmaking.

If you want a "superforecast" of the next 10 years, be close to what is happening in the crypto space. The disruptions there will not be to commerce and currencies alone. There will be so much awareness of the folly of corporations and government that we WILL see a renaissance.

Decentralization is how nature functions. Centralization and hierarchies are a man-made construct to try to simplify a complex world and remain dominant. Man failed. Nature will rule. The pandemic is nature teaching us that lesson all over again. I hope we learn. We MUST learn.