Our focus now turns to GW18 when, given a reduced number of games (6), we will undoubtedly see the first large-scale deployment of chips this season amongst active team's as a large portion of the FPL community wield their “Free Hit” chip.

Both Burnley & Manchester United, who were due to blank, gained a fixture at the 11th hour when on New Year’s Eve their tie at Turf Moor was rescheduled for Tuesday 12th January. This article will focus on assessing Manchester United assets ahead of BGW18.

Season to date
Man United endured a fairly wretched start to the season. In the opening six games the Red Devils dropped 11pts. The 6-1 defeat at home to Spurs a humiliating low point that led to renewed calls amongst disgruntled fans for the sullen Solskjaer to be sacked.

However, a 3-1 victory away at Goodison Park lit the touch paper and sparked a run of league form which yielded eights wins and two draws. The most recent victory, a 2-1 home win over Aston Villa, propelled Man United to level on points with Liverpool with a game in hand.

Tale of the tape
A dive into the stats shows that, over the last 8 gameweeks, Man United top the table amongst all teams in the division for goals (20), shots on target (53), and big chances (31).

Furthermore, Man United sit top for all teams for goals scored away from home (21) despite having played two games less than Leicester & Leeds who sit second and third respectively. It’s worth noting that Man United haven’t kept an away clean sheet this season in the EPL.

During the same period Burnley have been 3rd worst in the division for both shots conceded and shots on target conceded (per appearance). In home games this season Burnley rank amongst some of the worst in the division with only five goals scored in seven matches.

Captain Obvious
Bruno Fernandes is an obvious selection and a mainstay of the majority of FPL sides . Looking at the data for last eight gameweeks, in terms of goal threat Bruno ranks joint 1st for big chances received (7), sits 3rd for xG (4.45), joint 1st for goals scored (5).

Fernandes also holds the role of creator in chief at Man United ranking 2nd for big chances created (5) and assists (5). Staggeringly, since his arrival at Old Trafford from Sporting Lisbon the Portuguese international has amassed 247 fantasy point in only 23 gameweeks.

He has proven himself neither one-trick pony nor penalty dependent but a bonafide fantasy heavyweight. These extraordinary level of returns put Bruno very much in the mix as a perma-captain. The question for many is – is owning him enough or will you back him with the “armband”?

Marcus or Martial?
Following a slow start to the season, Newcastle game with-standing, Rashford found his shooting boots away to West Ham and has been on a “heater” ever since with five goals in seven games. In contrast, in 17 gameweeks Anthony Martial has notched only twice.

Looking at the data for last eight gameweeks, for all players, Marcus Rashford ties 3rd for shots on target (11), shares a four way tie joint top of big chances received (7) and sits 4th for xG (4.00). Rashford also sits top (on a four way tie) for goals scored with 5.

Interestingly when analysing only away games this season (per appearance) Rashford tops all players for shots on target (1.9 per appearance) and big chances (1.4 per appearance). For a number of reasons I would plump with Rashford over Martial as a pick.

Firstly, the weight of evidence of the underlying data of Rashford shows that his performance levels have been no fluke. Secondly, whilst I do not feel Martial is at the same level right now I also have doubts over his game time with the evergreen Cavani waiting in reserve.

Furthermore, from a structure point of view with the majority of premium picks for both 18 -19 and beyond in the midfield (with the exception of a big forward) it may be hard to make a forward like Martial work in terms of the budget.

A case for the defence?
Without an away clean sheet this season, despite Burnley’s blunt attack, it would be hard to have confidence in a Man United shut out. In terms of goal threat Maguire looks the pick of the bunch with three attempts on target over the last eight gameweeks.

In terms of creative spark, over the same period, Luke Shaw has created two big chances with xA (expected assist) rating of 1.25. Shaw, whilst appearing ahead of Telles in the current pecking order, still appears very much a rotation risk making him a no-go for me.

In conclusion, I am definitely enamoured by the Manchester United attack and I am very much on target for an attacking double up in my GW18 “free hit”. For me, Bruno is a lock – he is certainly in my team and in a two horse race with KDB for captaincy.

Marcus Rashford looks very appealing from a numbers perspective, especially away from home. At the close of GW17 Rashford sat in just under 10% of top 10k teams and I expect a large amount of movement in that number with those on the free-hit, wildcard and transfers.

However, there could still be gains if Rashford hauls at Burnley given that those “muddling through” with transfers may have higher priority transfers. Man United defensive numbers are cause for concern and the underlyings for threat or creativity don’t scream enough "upside".

However, the fantasy landscape is subject to change. In the current climate, plans should remain fluid and value shouldn't be chased. Aston Villa have closed their training ground after an outbreak of covid which could put their match with Spurs at risk of cancellation.

If Villa & Spurs lose their GW18 fixture the limited pool of players could push those on a "free hit" towards a third United player. This scenario would mean a budget awash with money to punt on premium differential options like Sterling or Aubameyang.

Instead I would consider double Man City midfield (DeBruyne & Sterling) rather than two City defenders. This could mean a punt on Maguire. I wouldn't triple on Man United attack as their fixture doesn't screams goals. Good luck folks for the gameweek ahead (if we have one!).

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Data taken from @FFH_HQ with consent from @Fergi222 (Thanks Andrew).

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