Read on Twitter
In a twitter population of 200 persons, there is a proportion p of "followers" and 1-p of "informed" persons. Informed people have the correct (binary and independent) opinion on the topic of the day with probability 60%. #herding #opinion [1/n]
Followers are simply following the dominating opinion among K=11 of their contacts (some of them being informed), updating their belief (tweets) every few hours. That is an iterative process that quickly converges. How often do the followers get it right? [2/n]
Well, that indeed depends a lot on the proportion of followers. In the plot below, each "blue" dot represents a different experiment for a different value of "p". And the red curve is the average for a given value of "p". [3/n]
![Well, that indeed depends a lot on the proportion of followers. In the plot below, each "blue" dot represents a different experiment for a different value of "p". And the red curve is the average for a given value of "p". [3/n]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErMGq8oUUAMCCoG.png "Well, that indeed depends a lot on the proportion of followers. In the plot below, each \"blue\" dot represents a different experiment for a different value of \"p\". And the red curve is the average for a given value of \"p\". [3/n]")
When p is small, the global consensus is very accurate: wisdom of the crowd, much better than 60%. But as "p" increases, the crowd agrees on an opinion which is basically random! Very interesting paper: https://cutt.ly/Ojkq1NF [n/n]
