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THREAD ON 2021 WRs! This is part 1 of a series I will be doing on the 2021 WR prospects comparing each WR to previous WR1s across a series of metrics that have shown a correlation to NFL success.
I will continue adding more metrics and new WRs.
Please give it a read!
METRICS USED:
1) Dominator (DOM): Pct. of team yards + TDs produced in their best college season
2) Breakout Age (BOA): Age of first season w/ 20% DOM Rating
3) ADOM: Age-Adjusted Dominator. Dominator rating adjusted for the age of the prospect during their top season
4) BMI
1) Dominator (DOM): Pct. of team yards + TDs produced in their best college season
2) Breakout Age (BOA): Age of first season w/ 20% DOM Rating
3) ADOM: Age-Adjusted Dominator. Dominator rating adjusted for the age of the prospect during their top season
4) BMI
WRs Considered:
I used my preliminary Top 5 for the first thread:
- J'Marr Chase
- Rondale Moore
- Rashod Bateman
- Terrace Marshall
- DeVonta Smith
In the next iteration I will add 5 more WRs
I will also be adding YPT and Relative YPT into the comparative metrics next thread
I used my preliminary Top 5 for the first thread:
- J'Marr Chase
- Rondale Moore
- Rashod Bateman
- Terrace Marshall
- DeVonta Smith
In the next iteration I will add 5 more WRs
I will also be adding YPT and Relative YPT into the comparative metrics next thread
2021 WR PERFORMANCE:
I'll leave further evaluation of this for later but here is how the 5 2021 WRs we're considering performed this year as well as their BMI and Breakout Age.
You can also see their full production here but for now we will be leaving this out of the comparison
I'll leave further evaluation of this for later but here is how the 5 2021 WRs we're considering performed this year as well as their BMI and Breakout Age.
You can also see their full production here but for now we will be leaving this out of the comparison
2016-2020 WR1s:
We're now going to examine how the WR1s in PPG from the past 5 seasons performed / measured at each of these 4 metrics outlined:
Here is 2016-18:
We're now going to examine how the WR1s in PPG from the past 5 seasons performed / measured at each of these 4 metrics outlined:
Here is 2016-18:
2019-20:
COMPARISON:
Here are our 2021 WRs vs. the cumulative scores of the 2016-2020 WR1s across these metrics:
These WRs have produced very well when compared against NFL studs. Of the 3 production metrics, there are 5 >75 percentile results vs. 2 <25percentile results
Here are our 2021 WRs vs. the cumulative scores of the 2016-2020 WR1s across these metrics:
These WRs have produced very well when compared against NFL studs. Of the 3 production metrics, there are 5 >75 percentile results vs. 2 <25percentile results
Applying the numbers:
Ja'Marr Chase: (1)
Chase has a prototypical NFL frame and we know his production in 2019 was off the charts.
In context, against the prolific LSU offence overall shows that his production relative to his offence was good but not quite as incendiary
Ja'Marr Chase: (1)
Chase has a prototypical NFL frame and we know his production in 2019 was off the charts.
In context, against the prolific LSU offence overall shows that his production relative to his offence was good but not quite as incendiary
Ja'Marr Chase: (2)
Let's examine Chase compared to other prospects with high levels of production in high-octane offences with great teammates to compete with:
Chase (19<BOA<20 ; 30<ADOM<35) compares favourably to:
OBJ
Julio Jones
A.J. Brown
D.K. Metcalf
Justin Jefferson
Let's examine Chase compared to other prospects with high levels of production in high-octane offences with great teammates to compete with:
Chase (19<BOA<20 ; 30<ADOM<35) compares favourably to:
OBJ
Julio Jones
A.J. Brown
D.K. Metcalf
Justin Jefferson
Ja'Marr Chase: (3)
The only prospects in a similar situation to Chase's who clearly outperformed him in these metrics was Deandre Hopkins.
If the worst thing you can say about Chase is he probably won't be as good as Hopkins... that's pretty good!
The only prospects in a similar situation to Chase's who clearly outperformed him in these metrics was Deandre Hopkins.
If the worst thing you can say about Chase is he probably won't be as good as Hopkins... that's pretty good!
Rondale Moore: (1)
Rondale lights up the board in this exercise. His production at age 18 lands him in extremely rarified air. If there are any concerns with him it would be the fact that (largely due to injury) he has not improved upon his 2018 season + lack of efficiency
Rondale lights up the board in this exercise. His production at age 18 lands him in extremely rarified air. If there are any concerns with him it would be the fact that (largely due to injury) he has not improved upon his 2018 season + lack of efficiency
Rondale Moore: (2)
I am looking at WRs who broke out early on less than prolific offences and plateaued later. In fact, this archetype often pops among future NFL studs:
- Stefon Diggs
- AJ Green
- Larry Fitzgerald
- Juju Smith-Scheuster
I am looking at WRs who broke out early on less than prolific offences and plateaued later. In fact, this archetype often pops among future NFL studs:
- Stefon Diggs
- AJ Green
- Larry Fitzgerald
- Juju Smith-Scheuster
Rondale Moore: (3)
Will Moore join that impressive company?
My bet is yes.
BTW I don't care about his height. There are lots of great short WRS and his BMI is fine.
Will Moore join that impressive company?
My bet is yes.
BTW I don't care about his height. There are lots of great short WRS and his BMI is fine.
Rashod Bateman: (1)
Bateman's BMI falls perfectly within NFL standards.
His production profile bears a lot of similarities with Moore in terms of the early breakout + later plateau in a fairly average offence.
Bateman's BMI falls perfectly within NFL standards.
His production profile bears a lot of similarities with Moore in terms of the early breakout + later plateau in a fairly average offence.
Bateman: (2)
Bateman's profile is arguably more impressive than Moore's. He was more efficient, and nearly as productive despite playing alongside better competition (Tyler Johnson).
Based on this profile the comps are similar but I have even less questions (Rahsod lacks gifs)
Bateman's profile is arguably more impressive than Moore's. He was more efficient, and nearly as productive despite playing alongside better competition (Tyler Johnson).
Based on this profile the comps are similar but I have even less questions (Rahsod lacks gifs)
Terrace Marshall: (1)
His frame is a slimmer version of Bateman and with a little added he could hit the Golloday / Green zone. (Lanky but Tanky)
Marshall was highly productive in 2019 (13 TD) but the offence was so prolific that his breakout year was technically not until 2020
His frame is a slimmer version of Bateman and with a little added he could hit the Golloday / Green zone. (Lanky but Tanky)
Marshall was highly productive in 2019 (13 TD) but the offence was so prolific that his breakout year was technically not until 2020
Marshall: (2)
Marshall came in as the youngest among a trio of future NFL studs (Chase + Jefferson) and was immediately productive.
When they left he took off this year, it just so happened that his breakout coincided with a massive regression in the QB + play-calling
Marshall came in as the youngest among a trio of future NFL studs (Chase + Jefferson) and was immediately productive.
When they left he took off this year, it just so happened that his breakout coincided with a massive regression in the QB + play-calling
Marshall: (3)
Nonetheless, Marshall posted one of the highest ADOM's I have recorded when you factor out the games post-opt out.
His statistical profile is unique but compares favourably to:
- A.J. Green
- Jarvis Landry
- Davante Adams
- Will Fuller
Nonetheless, Marshall posted one of the highest ADOM's I have recorded when you factor out the games post-opt out.
His statistical profile is unique but compares favourably to:
- A.J. Green
- Jarvis Landry
- Davante Adams
- Will Fuller
Devonta Smith: (1)
Ok... we're finally here.
Devonta Smith is the mirror image of Marshall comp wise but with a few more concerns imo.
The BMI (23.1) is MASSIVELY lower than the lowest recorded BMI among WR1s (24.7 - Fuller) and over 2.5 below any repeat WR1.
Ok... we're finally here.
Devonta Smith is the mirror image of Marshall comp wise but with a few more concerns imo.
The BMI (23.1) is MASSIVELY lower than the lowest recorded BMI among WR1s (24.7 - Fuller) and over 2.5 below any repeat WR1.
Smith: (2)
Does a low BMI mean he will be bad?
Obviously not. It just means that there are not a lot of WR1s who profile like he does.
The good:
His 2020 is among the best ever charted from a raw and relative production standpoint. You can't see that and expect him to bust.
Does a low BMI mean he will be bad?
Obviously not. It just means that there are not a lot of WR1s who profile like he does.
The good:
His 2020 is among the best ever charted from a raw and relative production standpoint. You can't see that and expect him to bust.
Smith: (3)
Smith's breakout age is considerably later than most WR1s in the sample, however his production is among the best. Honestly, this was the biggest reason I created ADOM for this review.
Here's how he ranks among the '16-20 WR1s:
BOA: 24/30
DOM: 5/30
ADOM: 8/30
Smith's breakout age is considerably later than most WR1s in the sample, however his production is among the best. Honestly, this was the biggest reason I created ADOM for this review.
Here's how he ranks among the '16-20 WR1s:
BOA: 24/30
DOM: 5/30
ADOM: 8/30
Smith: (4)
Combining elite production w/ late breakout + Low BMI he compares favourably with:
- Will Fuller
- AJ Green
He has risk but there are paths to success for him and we've seen it.
There are reasons to have some concerns but there is also plenty of room for optimism
Combining elite production w/ late breakout + Low BMI he compares favourably with:
- Will Fuller
- AJ Green
He has risk but there are paths to success for him and we've seen it.
There are reasons to have some concerns but there is also plenty of room for optimism
Conclusions:
Based solely on this exercise here's how I'd rank these WRs' profiles:
1. Marshall
2. Bateman
3. Moore
4. Chase
5. Smith
Adding this to my existing analysis and adding context:
1. Chase (/)
2. Bateman (+1)
3. Moore (-1)
4. Marshall (/)
5. Smith (/)
Based solely on this exercise here's how I'd rank these WRs' profiles:
1. Marshall
2. Bateman
3. Moore
4. Chase
5. Smith
Adding this to my existing analysis and adding context:
1. Chase (/)
2. Bateman (+1)
3. Moore (-1)
4. Marshall (/)
5. Smith (/)
*** This version of this thread is updated with a correction to the BMI of Rashod Bateman ****
Thank you for reading and I'd appreciate you sharing and/or providing feedback!
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