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My view on schools-- they ought be open in all but rarest instances-was reached from late summer to fall, when I spent considerable time examining the risk of virtual schools to kids vs. the risk of in person schools to kids, teachers, community
Here is my journey
[thread]
Here is my journey
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I'm a health policy person-- have been in the business for 10 years-- so naturally I was intrigued by a complex, multi-factoral problem like schools
I needed something to mull over, so I started reading (July-ish)
I needed something to mull over, so I started reading (July-ish)
In my reading of the literature, and interviews with relevant experts, I learned that the harms from school closure were more than I would have imagined
See my interview with Vlad Kogan
https://soundcloud.com/plenarysession/ep313
And @vkoganpolisci and Carycruz Bueno https://soundcloud.com/plenarysession/ep322
See my interview with Vlad Kogan
https://soundcloud.com/plenarysession/ep313
And @vkoganpolisci and Carycruz Bueno https://soundcloud.com/plenarysession/ep322
I also learned the risks to kids for harm or serious illness were consistent with risks that we do send kids to school
See this interview
Both these facts came as a surprise, but I was not a schools expert https://soundcloud.com/plenarysession/ep315
See this interview
Both these facts came as a surprise, but I was not a schools expert https://soundcloud.com/plenarysession/ep315
I started to considered the intangible costs to school closure, on downstream society, and finally surveyed the US landscape
US hypocrisy was baffling
Closures had nothing to do with test positivity, hospitalizations or ICU levels
US hypocrisy was baffling
Closures had nothing to do with test positivity, hospitalizations or ICU levels
Closure appeared to have everything to do with whether you were in a public school vs. a private school or private daycare; or based on whether your state was pro-trump (tend to favor schools) or against-trump (more closure)
Meanwhile my colleagues from Europe were telling me about re-openings
I noticed that Trump said something about schools, and people who opposed him vehemently.
Gosh, harming kids to spite a politician did not seem wise to me https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/12/why-british-kids-are-school-american-kids-arent/617438/
Gosh, harming kids to spite a politician did not seem wise to me https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/12/why-british-kids-are-school-american-kids-arent/617438/
The presence of strong unions was also associated with school closure
That's weird. I did not know covid and unions were related https://www.edworkingpapers.com/ai20-304
That's weird. I did not know covid and unions were related https://www.edworkingpapers.com/ai20-304
I was surprised that something as important as this issue would be decided by absolutely irrational things-- that have nothing to do with the risk benefit of schools
Emily Oster and many others saw this too, but look at the thanks she gets! (oh well, I admire her!)
Emily Oster and many others saw this too, but look at the thanks she gets! (oh well, I admire her!)
As I was researching this, I noted that some popular twitter accounts made a brand of being anti-schools
That was really weird. But fear sells, i guess
That was really weird. But fear sells, i guess
I read some papers on aerosols, but they bored me-- b/c I know the limits of reductionist thinking
I spoke to some other really smart people
A guy who ALMOST ran a schools RCT
@AtleFretheim https://soundcloud.com/plenarysession/ep317
I spoke to some other really smart people
A guy who ALMOST ran a schools RCT
@AtleFretheim https://soundcloud.com/plenarysession/ep317
And a really clear thinker https://soundcloud.com/plenarysession/ep324
As data came out, I saw over and over that schools were remarkably safe
Instead of actual experience in other countries, the anti-school side, relied on speculation and theoretical concerns https://twitter.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status/1347224583460376579?s=20
Instead of actual experience in other countries, the anti-school side, relied on speculation and theoretical concerns https://twitter.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status/1347224583460376579?s=20
I read more, and was surprised to see the strange role unions were playing https://twitter.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status/1345597430939586560?s=20
The toilet seat one really kills me, as it is particularly irrational and clearly linked to a known source of twitter misinformation https://twitter.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status/1347369486832189445?s=20
As a lifelong progressive, it took me a while to really realize that unions were a hinderance to progress on this issue
But, since my first commitment is to evidence, I had to reach that conclusion
But, since my first commitment is to evidence, I had to reach that conclusion
So my position is not open schools irrespective of what is going on. If hospitals are nearing collapse in an area, it is fair to suspend them. But only temporarily and in that area
What is happening in the US is far larger
They are suspended on a massive scale
What is happening in the US is far larger
They are suspended on a massive scale
Whether or not school closures in even this dire scenario helps or hurts is actually unknown, but I take the position out of an abundance of caution
I would prefer RCTs -- but LBH, the US has failed too much at that this pandemic
I would prefer RCTs -- but LBH, the US has failed too much at that this pandemic
Available data does not show risks to kids that outweigh the benefit school provide
Available data does not show risks to teachers outweigh the value of their job-- it's essential work
Available data does not show risks to teachers outweigh the value of their job-- it's essential work
Studies cannot show to what degree closure slows community spread b/c honestly, societies did too many draconian things all at once, so it is hard to tease them out
Twitter is the worst place to discuss this issue, the pendulum is so far against opening schools that one cannot have a meaningful conversation
Bottom line: I approached this question as a neutral and frankly disinterested person.
As I read, I saw the trade-offs more clearly and I was concerned.
The more I read the more concerned I get
As I read, I saw the trade-offs more clearly and I was concerned.
The more I read the more concerned I get
I only comment on this issue more than others b/c I think my voice can help shape others thinking and b/c the long term harms will be immense from this continued path
My expertise is policy analysis, so if you tell me to stay in my lane, I will point out that I own this one
This is another study worth considering https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1336415805953748992?s=19
