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I've read this article by @profmusgrave 3 times. I can't muster a full thread, but I'm disappointed.
It uses the "coup debate" as a cheap way to bash civ-mil experts. The main problem: it mischaracterizes what coup scholars have really been saying. 1/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/06/coup-america-capitol-electoral-college-2020-election/
It uses the "coup debate" as a cheap way to bash civ-mil experts. The main problem: it mischaracterizes what coup scholars have really been saying. 1/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/06/coup-america-capitol-electoral-college-2020-election/
Musgrave's piece cited an article:
"Some of the experts quoted in the piece urged calm and even insinuated that being alarmist about the indications that protesters aimed to cause severe unrest could be self-fulfilling."
But NO ONE actually does that. 2/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-election-coup/2021/01/05/26afcfc0-4f6c-11eb-bda4-615aaefd0555_story.html
"Some of the experts quoted in the piece urged calm and even insinuated that being alarmist about the indications that protesters aimed to cause severe unrest could be self-fulfilling."
But NO ONE actually does that. 2/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-election-coup/2021/01/05/26afcfc0-4f6c-11eb-bda4-615aaefd0555_story.html
I'll point out I don't think this was a coup. It was tragic, terrible, and devastating. But I want to move past that because the bigger claim is that scholars "didn't see this coming."
That's simply not true and I wish more had really listened to what scholars actually said. 3/
That's simply not true and I wish more had really listened to what scholars actually said. 3/
I'm not going into all the background on the debate, but I'll cite two of the best. Here is @naunihalpublic, author of "The Strategic Logic of Military Coups." 4/ https://twitter.com/naunihalpublic/status/1346930933421789186?s=20
And here is @esdebruin, author of "How to Prevent Coups d'Etat": 5/ https://twitter.com/esdebruin/status/1347196180011356165?s=20
For me, the central point is there has been no actual attempt to seize control of institutions. And Trump has taken none of the steps to do so.
But we have seen Trump engage in "sedition" and incite violent mobs to conduct acts of "insurrection" and "domestic terrorism." 6/
But we have seen Trump engage in "sedition" and incite violent mobs to conduct acts of "insurrection" and "domestic terrorism." 6/
If you'd told me in October we'd only a handful of deaths, I'd have been shocked. I'm still worried--but not about a coup.
In fact, saying Trump is attempting a coup without loyal security institutions is like saying a baseball player is trying to hit a ball without a bat. 7/
In fact, saying Trump is attempting a coup without loyal security institutions is like saying a baseball player is trying to hit a ball without a bat. 7/
Actual coup scholars had been saying we should expect post-election violence. That's not the same as a coup.
I personally expected dozens of deaths. I tried to encourage the military to prepare for a situation like yesterday. I wish I'd done more. 8/ https://twitter.com/jimgolby/status/1312581753081655301
I personally expected dozens of deaths. I tried to encourage the military to prepare for a situation like yesterday. I wish I'd done more. 8/ https://twitter.com/jimgolby/status/1312581753081655301
And I almost feel like I should just cite this entire article from @matanock & @pstanpolitics because it is so prescient. 9/ https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-29/militarization-us-politics
For example:
"In the United States’ fragmented, politically malleable, and decentralized system of law enforcement, local authorities often have the autonomy to ignore or tolerate the activities of militant groups if they want to."
The point is, scholars saw this coming. 10/
"In the United States’ fragmented, politically malleable, and decentralized system of law enforcement, local authorities often have the autonomy to ignore or tolerate the activities of militant groups if they want to."
The point is, scholars saw this coming. 10/
I personally was so worried about violence that I discussed the military's role in dealing with it on my podcast with @RisaBrooks12 in October. She emphasized that the military and guard should prepare for the type of situation we saw yesterday. 11/ https://www.csis.org/node/58716
None of this is a semantic discussion. Coups, sedition, polarization, and democratic backsliding all have different mechanisms -- and they all require different interventions and policy solutions.
And these threats manifest in different times and different ways. 12/
And these threats manifest in different times and different ways. 12/
Coup scholars haven't been saying things aren't dangerous. They've been saying they are dangerous in a different way.
They've also been saying danger doesn't end with Trump. It may be growing, especially if we don't act wisely. 13/ https://twitter.com/jimgolby/status/1339433324264251392?s=20
They've also been saying danger doesn't end with Trump. It may be growing, especially if we don't act wisely. 13/ https://twitter.com/jimgolby/status/1339433324264251392?s=20
So the answer is not to claim scholars "didn't see this coming" but to ask why didn't we listen to the things they were actually saying.
Even if we move past the urgency of the immediate crisis (I'm not sure), dangers still loom & trends are bad. We will need real expertise. 14/
Even if we move past the urgency of the immediate crisis (I'm not sure), dangers still loom & trends are bad. We will need real expertise. 14/
So journalists, like @Max_Fisher, other scholars, and policymakers should engage experts' arguments and listen to what they are actually saying.
Because they did see this coming, and they've got more to say about where things could head from here. 15/15 https://twitter.com/Max_Fisher/status/1347277975855783937?s=20
Because they did see this coming, and they've got more to say about where things could head from here. 15/15 https://twitter.com/Max_Fisher/status/1347277975855783937?s=20
I guess I did muster a full thread after all. :)
