> the defi exit play is a different play from exit to fiat play

to me, "defi" is my "alts"

for others, it can be more broad to include the new eth killer stuff like dots, atom, sol, srm, or old stuff too like ltc xrp

but those are outside my niche, so i choose to focus on defi https://twitter.com/DegenSpartan/status/1347354065009668101

imo, there are 2 games at play which are not in perfect sync with each other

1st is the larger, more macro and broad fiat<>crypto game

2nd is the smaller, more micro and narrow majors<>alts game

1st game its just PvE, you play a giant marshmellow game of chicken against NPCs to see who can hold on longer and sell the top before the whole bubble pops - again

overwhelming demand against tight supply causes prices to surge at peak demand/supply, causing those blow off tops

2nd game is more PvP, since you're not playing against ez mode NPCs, but instead other players with varying experience

as with all PvP game, the meta constantly changes and there is no dominant strategy that will be perpetually successful in every situation (rock paper scissors)

i think both games are largely independent of each other

1st game win condition is to walk at peak fiat

2nd game win condition is to walk at peak BTC/ETH

you can play both games independently

imo the skills to succeed in each game is different

in game 1, it is the understanding of cycles and psychology when it comes to money

in game 2 (in defi), it is identifying who will evolve to be the apex predators in enclosed ecosystems

just sharing my mental model of how i have things currently framed - im playing 2 concurrent games, not one

i think the small picture initial goal is to win out X amount of fiat

but the big picture stretch goal is to have enough fiat, that you now want to own Y amount of coins

btw i think BTC maxis either dont realize that game 2 exists, or are just so trash at it that they believe it is an unwinnable scam

they love to cite how most alts are down against in sats

yet somehow im up more than 10x in sats since last cycle

ETH maxis are not any different