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Why Jonathan Taylor may not be the RB1 next year but why he will be in 2022 a thread.
First of all, there are currently a lot of JT truthers out there right now, but I will try to provide some information that isn’t being talked about a lot. For starters, his first two seasons with the Badgers he only had 8 receptions each year but in his final season he improved
to a whopping 26. Now this may have been due to Jack Coan taking over the starting QB role from Hornibrook who was the starter for his first two seasons but it still allowed him to showcase his catching ability and being the work horse back everyone desires.
Enter the NFL and he has a 92.3% catch rate, granted this is mostly dump offs from Rivers but he still averages 10 YAC! Even though he boasts this incredible stat he has only been lined up as a WR 6 times? That is bound to change with time as well as the fact he only received 51%
of his teams RB snaps. Now what other players have put up a performance better than him with that low of snap share? No other player has rushed for more yards than JT with a snapshare of 51% or less in the last four years (all the data I could find) at 1169 yds.
Jt had 11 rushing tds and 1 receiving td, let’s see what players have come close to that in the last four years:
Derrick Henry with 12 rushing and 0 receiving in 2018, Nick Chubb with 12 rushing and 0 receiving as well but in 2020, Antonio Gibson with 11 rushing and 0 receiving in 2020, and surprisingly Mark Ingram with 10 rushing and 5 receiving in 2019 (shocking to me).
I consider this pretty elite company and shows how good Gibson could be as well. One season later and Derrick Henry leads the league in rushing yards and ties 16 rushing TDs with Jones after only seeing his snap share increase to 63% in comparison to CMC’s share of 93%.
So even if JT only sees an increase in share of about 10% we could see a significant boost in his value because of this absurd efficiency and this is why I can see him being the RB1 this year but I could understand the tempering of expectations.
So I will move on to why he 100% will be the RB1 in 2022. Nyheim Hines. Hines is set to be a free agent in 2022. Hines had around 36% of the colts backfield while Wilkins had around 18%. Hines took away 76 targets with this time, as well as 89 rushing attempts up for grabs.
So lets split that and say JT picks up 18% and Wilkins gets 18% (which likely won't happen) that is a significant boost from the 10% we’re hoping for in 2021. Overall I can see why someone has CMC or Kamara or any other elite running back as their 1 but to me it's JT.
PS age.
Huge shoutout to @rui_mos for creating the sweet graphs and go check out his thread on every team in the NFL! https://twitter.com/rui_mos/status/1346828840363040770
This is my first thread and obviously first tweet on this "burner" account designed for my fantasy takes and hopefully more threads. Huge inspirations include @DynastyJacobian and @F1__17 for posting some of the best threads I've ever read! Accepting all advice, thank you!
