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The fact that a mob breached the capital is...appalling. I have no doubt there will be a investigation that will come up w/recommendations.
Right now, I have more questions than answers, but here are some very preliminary thoughts about what *might* have gone wrong.
Right now, I have more questions than answers, but here are some very preliminary thoughts about what *might* have gone wrong.
First, crowds are challenging. There can be many competing priorities: civil rights, public safety, order maintenance, officer safety, safeguarding property, etc.
Here, there are *more* concerns: national security in the form of principal protection, espionage, etc.
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Here, there are *more* concerns: national security in the form of principal protection, espionage, etc.
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Imagine the chaos that would have resulted if VP Pence and Speaker Pelosi--who would succeed the president in the event of his incapacity--had been injured or worse?
Imagine someone sticking an infected flash drive in a senator's office computer or grabbing hard copy files.
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Imagine someone sticking an infected flash drive in a senator's office computer or grabbing hard copy files.
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Those aren't concerns that most police agencies dealing with crowds have to worry about!
Okay, so what the hell happened?! I dunno, but it *could* involve...
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Okay, so what the hell happened?! I dunno, but it *could* involve...
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-Intelligence and Risk Assessment Failures.
What *could* the Capital Police (et al) have known in advance and what *did* the Capital Police know in advance? Did they underestimate the risk or overestimate their own capabilities?
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What *could* the Capital Police (et al) have known in advance and what *did* the Capital Police know in advance? Did they underestimate the risk or overestimate their own capabilities?
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-Capacity, Planning, and Implementation failures.
How did they prepare for events like this generally & for this event specifically? How were officers trained and equipped to deal with crowds? How were officers and equipment staged for *this* event?
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How did they prepare for events like this generally & for this event specifically? How were officers trained and equipped to deal with crowds? How were officers and equipment staged for *this* event?
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- Decision-making, Command, and Communications Failures
Who was making which decisions and how (and to whom) were they communicated? Was there sufficient situational awareness (bottom-up communication to a scene commander) to allow for command (top-down communications)?
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Who was making which decisions and how (and to whom) were they communicated? Was there sufficient situational awareness (bottom-up communication to a scene commander) to allow for command (top-down communications)?
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- Coordination Failures
How were events communicated between agencies? Were Capital Police, MPD, Secret Service, National Guard, etc., operating from the same playbook and were they on the same page? Or the same frequency, literally: could they communicate w/each other?
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How were events communicated between agencies? Were Capital Police, MPD, Secret Service, National Guard, etc., operating from the same playbook and were they on the same page? Or the same frequency, literally: could they communicate w/each other?
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Right now, I have answers to exactly none of those questions.
No surprise there, to be honest; we're ~24 post event *and* I don't know a lot about the Capital Police. Even if I did, it will take a while to get the relevant information.
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No surprise there, to be honest; we're ~24 post event *and* I don't know a lot about the Capital Police. Even if I did, it will take a while to get the relevant information.
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What I *do* know is that things didn't happen the way I'd have expected.
It's usually better to keep a mob *out* of a building than to force them out after they've already gotten in, but the reporting (limited info!) suggests they didn't have much trouble getting in.
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It's usually better to keep a mob *out* of a building than to force them out after they've already gotten in, but the reporting (limited info!) suggests they didn't have much trouble getting in.
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The deployment of firearms, with one person shot, is worth a hard look. Some of the pictures show officers pointing weapons (high ready) with their fingers on the trigger--this is a big deal--in situations where one or both of those things seem problematic.
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The aftermath was...weird. I'm particularly struck by the video of the Capital Police officer holding the door open to let members of the mob file out. There can be good reasons to not arrest or to delay arrests (avoid exciting the crowd), but I have questions.
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Oh, one caution: I think it's *very* difficult to compare the police response to one event to the response to another. Contexts--location, reasons for the crowd, etc.--can be very different and lead agencies and officers to respond differently. Sadly, that includes race.
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It's pretty clear--all other things being as equal as we can imagine them--that there are *often* different police responses to events involving right-wing, majority white crowds than they do to left-leaning crowds made up mostly or significantly of people of color.
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I don't know if *this* response would have looked different if yesterday's fiasco had involved a majority brown and black crowd chanting #BLM, but I don't think it's at all far fetched to think that it probably would have.
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*If* that's true, there are many possible--*possible*--reasons. Maybe intel analysis would have found the threats more credible, or different assumptions would have been made. Maybe the ofcs would have defaulted to a more kinetic response earlier.
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Race doesn't and shouldn't justify any such differences, but it can explain them. We should be honest about that, regret it, and seek to fix it.
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Back to the main question at hand--what the hell happened?! In a few months or a year no doubt there will be a comprehensive report w/ recommendations. I hope the Capitol Police, other agencies, and society at large *learn* from it.
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Unfortunately, police agencies don't have a great history of being learning organizations (although the feds are, in many ways, better about this than state or local agencies).
Fin/
Fin/
I'm going to add some relevant links as I see them:
Capitol Police declined assistance from other agencies: https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-riots-police-coronavirus-pandemic-9c39a4ddef0ab60a48828a07e4d03380
Capitol Police declined assistance from other agencies: https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-riots-police-coronavirus-pandemic-9c39a4ddef0ab60a48828a07e4d03380
Storming of the Capitol Was Openly Planned but Ignored by Law Enforcement https://theintercept.com/2021/01/07/capitol-trump-violence-law-enforcement/
Pentagon put significant restrictions on D.C. Guard ahead of Pro-Trump protests: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-protests-washington-guard-military/2021/01/07/c5299b56-510e-11eb-b2e8-3339e73d9da2_story.html
