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***THREAD***
Terry McLaurin is better than you think.
<Semi-long read>
Terry McLaurin is better than you think.
<Semi-long read>
Terry’s had to juggle 5 truly awful QB’s in just 2 seasons. Even so, he’s looked like a star since his first week in the league. He made a nice year 2 leap, even without an upgrade to QB. Let’s see what he accomplished this year, and what he could provide for your fantasy team.
Before the ankle injury, Terry McLaurin averaged 16.8 PPR ppg in weeks 1-12 with only 3 TD’s. With dumpster-fire QB play & being the main focus of the defense week in & week out, that’s nothing short of spectacular. Especially when you realize that was top 12 among WR’s.
What’s even more impressive is despite the low TD’s & being in the worst situation for any WR in football, he was WR9 at the time. Consider this; Excluding Diggs/Hopkins (who each had 4), each player ahead of McLaurin had at least 7 TD’s on the szn. That’s 4 more than Terry.
Before Smith was under center, Terry was averaging 17.2 PPR points per game. That average pace would’ve given him 275.2 PPR points, and would’ve had him finish as WR6 on the season. That’s more points than Metcalf, AJ Brown, Jefferson, & Keenan Allen finished with.
He posted these #’s despite a brutal CB schedule consisting of Slay, Peterson, Denzel Ward, Marlon Humphrey, Ramsey, and James Bradberry twice. If that doesn’t wow you, I don’t know what will. Ramsey got the best of him, admittedly. But you can’t sit this guy.
He does a lot with very little. Gotten respect from legends like Fitzgerald & Ochocinco. Only thing standing in his way is competent QB play and TD’s. The latter won’t be an issue. He led the league in contested catch% as a ROOKIE, & scored 7 TD’s on just 58 catches in year 1.
But...McKissic averaged 4.71 targets before Alex Smith stepped in for Kyle Allen in week 10. Since, McKissic averaged an absurd 8.6 targets out of the backfield. Smith is a special kind of bad. But fear not. He was 3rd string for a reason. Washington doesn’t want him starting.
Terry averaged 9.6 targets per game before week 10, as check down machine Alex Smith became the starter. That # dropped to 7.4 afterwards, & Terry never saw double digit targets for the rest of the fantasy season. This effectively ended Terry’s WR1 production.
With Washington likely addressing the QB position in the draft after the release of Haskins, the future will still be bright for Terry. Young QB’s have a habit of zoning in on their best target. We saw it with Haskins both last year & this year. Guys like him bail young QB’s out.
DeAndre Hopkins was notorious for balling out with bad QB play on a bad team. Does this sound familiar? It wasn’t until Watson came around that we saw what Hopkins could truly do. Terry McLaurin is headed down the same career path. Here are the #’s from their age 24 & 25 seasons:
Except...Hopkins had 78 more targets. He also had Deshaun Watson for 7 games. If Terry had those targets, he’d pace for 194-2,724-15. I’m not saying Terry=Hopkins, but he has the ceiling if he gets the workload. All signs say he will. But let’s dig deeper.
Terry had a 20.5% target share during those 2 years. Hopkins had a 30.5% share. Let’s say they played on the same team & we extrapolated their #’s over 16 games on 600 pass attempts. #’s would look like this:
Hop: 183 tgts for 97-1,311-7.8
McLaurin: 123 tgts for 79-1,100-7.8
Hop: 183 tgts for 97-1,311-7.8
McLaurin: 123 tgts for 79-1,100-7.8
However, there’s another layer to this. Before week 10 when Smith became the starter & Terry had a 27.3% target share. This is what Terry gets w a QB not named Alex Smith. Here are the #’s w that target share:
Hop: 183 tgts for 97-1,311-7.8
McLaurin: 163 tgts for 104-1,465-7.8!
Hop: 183 tgts for 97-1,311-7.8
McLaurin: 163 tgts for 104-1,465-7.8!
All of this is to say Terry McLaurin is even better than you think. Again, I’m not saying he’s Dhop. But the start to his career is eerily similar to a future HOFers. More efficient even. You can’t deny the talent. He’s matchup proof. The situation can only get better.
McLaurin’s 4.35 speed, burst, solid size & ability to make guys miss & fight through contact to gain YAC give him the weekly floor of a WR1. He led in YAC for much of the szn, but suffered an ankle injury in week 12. Still finished 5th among WR’s & top 5 in broken tackles.
With a whopping 41.2% of his teams air yards, & his big play ability he’s flashed time and time again, he’s a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. While being a player who provides one of the safest floors in football, you get the best of both worlds.
Oh, and the biggest gripe. Yes he’s 25. So what? We’re talking about a top 10 PPR WR, younger than Calvin Ridley, who hasn’t even entered his prime. A new QB is on the way. He doesn’t need TD’s to produce, but he’s due for regression. When that happens, look out. F1 is coming.
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@ThomasCP518
@ThomasCP518
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