Read on Twitter
Okay, let's talk about this one.
First, this is total cases in log scale, which works for exponential models. But it makes it difficult to see changes once you are at higher values.
From 1 to 1,000, it would seem as a big step, since you cross 3 powers of 10, https://twitter.com/mikmikpowder_/status/1347167831914283009
First, this is total cases in log scale, which works for exponential models. But it makes it difficult to see changes once you are at higher values.
From 1 to 1,000, it would seem as a big step, since you cross 3 powers of 10, https://twitter.com/mikmikpowder_/status/1347167831914283009
But from 100,001 to 101,000, you barely moved to another power of 10, and that is still 999 cases added. They will look flat even if you have a consistent stream of new cases.
So, we look at new cases, yes? Sure!
So, we look at new cases, yes? Sure!
In these ones we need context.
Cases by confirmation date on the left, cases by onset on the right.
Hey! Pababa na ang cases #flatteningcurve na ba?
Hmm... Musta ang contact tracing at testing?
Because if detection by tracing and testing is low, cases may be artificially low.
Cases by confirmation date on the left, cases by onset on the right.
Hey! Pababa na ang cases #flatteningcurve na ba?
Hmm... Musta ang contact tracing at testing?
Because if detection by tracing and testing is low, cases may be artificially low.
*mediyo doon sa DOH graph sumisirit yung pagtaas!
Anyway, kumusta contact tracing? Ewan, wala naman tayong direktang paraan para makita ang tracing performance natin. Wala pa akong nakikitang regular reporting.
Kumusta testing? Okay sige tingnan natin.
Kumusta testing? Okay sige tingnan natin.
Kita mo yung testing output (# of tests), tapos never pang bumalik sa peak testing? We are not detecting in the same way as before. Ever since the PRC incident, never nang bumalik. Ngayon, hindi pa bumabalik since holiday break, pero let's see.
Yung positivity pababa naman? Yeah, sure! Kumusta local level detection?
Sa NCR at Region VII, which are hotspots, okay pababa na cases and positivity nila, and they are a good 50%+ of the bulk of cases. These two regions have a fragile standing, especially NCR with its density.
Sa NCR at Region VII, which are hotspots, okay pababa na cases and positivity nila, and they are a good 50%+ of the bulk of cases. These two regions have a fragile standing, especially NCR with its density.
Pero yung ibang rehiyon? Ay nako, hindi consistent ang detection natin!
Ito ang Cordillera Region, kung saan makikita ang Baguio.
Yung positivity rate nila, pataas since September at walang humpay ang trend!
Ito ang Cordillera Region, kung saan makikita ang Baguio.
Yung positivity rate nila, pataas since September at walang humpay ang trend!
CARAGA Region. Ang huling rehiyon na magkaroon ng testing center.
Yunh blue line ay 5% positivity value, pamantayan ng WHO para masabing mababa na ang pagkalat kung 14 araw na mababa sa 5%, bukod sa iba pang metrics.
Hindi pa achieve ng Caraga.
Yunh blue line ay 5% positivity value, pamantayan ng WHO para masabing mababa na ang pagkalat kung 14 araw na mababa sa 5%, bukod sa iba pang metrics.
Hindi pa achieve ng Caraga.
Region II.
Binagyo sila kaya humina ang testing, pero mataas ang positivity. Hindi magandang bagay.
Binagyo sila kaya humina ang testing, pero mataas ang positivity. Hindi magandang bagay.
Region III.
Malaking problema dahil consistently mataas ang positivity, pero hindi pa rin nagtaas ng kapasidad sa bilang ng tao na tine-test. Hindi pwede ito.
Malaking problema dahil consistently mataas ang positivity, pero hindi pa rin nagtaas ng kapasidad sa bilang ng tao na tine-test. Hindi pwede ito.
Haaaaay.
Anong pangtapos ko dito?
There is no sufficient nor strong evidence.
Lagi tayong kulang at mahina ang ebidensiya na pababa ang kaso.
We are not healing as one.
Anong pangtapos ko dito?
There is no sufficient nor strong evidence.
Lagi tayong kulang at mahina ang ebidensiya na pababa ang kaso.
We are not healing as one.
All raw data are accessible at DOH Data Drop ( http://bit.ly/DataDropPH )
