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THREAD: Ok so if Trump was impeached, how many GOP Sens could conceivably vote to remove? Let’s play America’s new favourite game, Fantasy Whip Count. Could Trump be removed? Let’s play. 1/
Currently there are 99 Senators. GA Purdue (R) term is over so he’s out. Ds and Is that caucus w them: 48. Assume they’re in. Ossoff & Warnoff won but GA SecState Raffensberger has til 22 Jan to certify. Let’s start by assuming he doesn’t do it sooner, though he could. 2/
So that would leave 51 GOP Senators. To get to a 2/3 majority, we’d need 66 votes. So we’d need 18 Republicans. 3/
Of the 51, 12 including Hawley, Cruz, RonJohn, Tuberville, Loeffler, Daines, Lankford, Marsha Blackburn, Mike Braun, Lummins, Hagerty, Marshall signed up to contest the electoral count. So let’s rule them out. 39 left. 4/
Mitt Romney, Ben Sasse, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins most likely ayes. So are there 14 votes for removal in the remaining 35? Let’s see. 5/
Rand Paul you have to think N. Richard Burr probably & Pat Toomey retiring, let’s go Y. Tom Scott maybe Y. Portman (OH) maybe Y. Mike Lee (UT) - maybe Mitt sways. 9 to get. 29 Sens remain. 6/
Now it gets tricky. Tom Cotton might if he doubles down on distancing now and sees it as good for 2024. 8 to go. 7/
Marco Rubio - up in 2022, runoured primary challenge from Ivanka. Why not? 7 to go. 8/
Really down to Mitch at that point to get close. Elaine Chao resigned, but ultimately it’s whether it’s good politics for 2022 and regaining majority. 9/
Is it? To early to tell. Let’s assume he’s open to it being a vote of conscience. Maybe Sullivan (AK). Thune, Capito, maybe Mitch. Leaving 3 to find. I struggle. Graham? Nah. Grassley maybe retiring. Maybe Sasse grabs Deb Fischer. Leaving 1 short. 10/
So we go back to Raffensberger. Who was under threat today, and already pissed off. But GA SecState doesn’t have to wait to certify Warnoff & Ossoff. He could certify now, as both are above 0.5% lead so no automatic recount. 11/
If you were Raffensberger, wouldn’t you want payback? If he certified early, that would leave more paths. It’d also be a sign that other votes are being counted. 12/
So, this COULD happen. And the 2 GA seats would make a difference. But still unlikely. Who am I missing? 13/
It’s clearly a heavy lift. But wouldn’t it be cool if it came down to Raffensberger certifying early?
