Let me try this again… What would it look like if this were a coup (failed, in progress, or otherwise)? 1/n

Coups are differentiated from other forms of political violence like rebellions, insurgencies, terrorism, etc. because they involve regime insiders. One faction of the governing elite displacing another. 2/n

Usually when the faction “seizing power” already has executive power we call it an autogolpe. But given the Biden administration is only two weeks from inauguration, I’ll let that slide. So check. 3/n

Also, force has to be involved. The vast majority of coups involve the regular military. Sometimes a presidential guard or other paramilitary unit directly controlled by regime insiders. Less frequently the police. 4/n

The point is that coups are differentiated from other forms of elite power struggle by the force used to circumvent institutions. 5/n

The force being deployed right now in the US in support of Trump is by either far right militias or an unruly mob, depending on how you want to classify them. Not by state security forces. 6/n

This gets us into interesting conceptual territory, but not without precedent. Regime insiders leveraging the force of regime outsiders to seize power. I think we could include this as a coup if two conditions were met: 7/n

First, you would have to demonstrate a plan to actually seize power. It doesn’t have to be a good plan. And the plan can develop over time. But it has to be more than incendiary speech, or random violence and intimidation, or anarchy. 8/n

Second, and perhaps most importantly, you would have to demonstrate conspiracy between regime insiders and the militias. Communications that establish joint coordination of action to fulfill said plan. 9/n

Or maybe an explicit effort or plan by regime insiders to incite violence by the militias/mobs and then exploit the conditions created to take power. 10/n

But absent the active collusion of regime insiders (or their intentional exploitation of violence) in order to seize power, the external uprising or insurrection or riot or what have you, is not a coup attempt. 11/n

That is the evidence I am waiting for to call it a coup: Real evidence of conspiracy by members of the Trump administration with right wing militias to perpetrate violence as part of a coordinated plan to seize power and overturn existing institutions. 12/n

Of course, there are many, many, crimes that are not coups. Including inciting a mob, insurrection, sedition, and terrorism. Those seem to already apply. 13/n

So now CNN has broadcast preliminary evidence that the extremist groups involved had communicated with each other in advance about storming the capital. Still missing the critical link to a regime insider plot to coordinate and/or exploit that violence.