1/25 Why occupation and apartheid are not mutually exclusive, and two states can also be the solution to Israeli apartheid in the West Bank (and why studying South African Apartheid made me a two-stater).
THREAD https://twitter.com/YairWallach/status/1346514561462099971

2/25 Viewing the West Bank as part of a de-facto does not one state strip Palestinians of their protected status under intl law: de jure annexation of East Jerusalem did not change the status of Palestinians living there. See UNHCR 2334.

3/25 Even annexation of the entire West Bank de jure, thus formally establishing one state, would not change that, as the ICRC notes on the prohibition of annexation https://casebook.icrc.org/glossary/annexation-prohibition

4/25 You can have a territory with a population that enjoys the protections of the 4th Geneva convention and commit the crime of apartheid in that territory at the same time - they are not mutually exclusive. See @Yeshdin’s legal opinion.
https://bit.ly/38kGybC 

5/25 By the way, recognizing the reality in I/P as it is i.e. apartheid (and occupation), doesn’t mean that a 2 state solution is impossible. South Africa’s one-state solution is not the only solution to the crime of apartheid.

6/25 The solution to SA Apartheid in Namibia was two states - that is, SA withdrew and Namibia gained its independence. Here in I/P as well, the end of apartheid can be 2SS w/ Palestinian independence. What’s important is that IL will stop committing the crime of apartheid.

7/25 That being said, the solution to apartheid in South Africa was one democratic state. More than anything, that’s because territorial separation in SA could not work. In Israel/Palestine, it’s exactly the opposite. Let’s dig into this.

8/25 I would argue that the most significant factors to consider in the determination of a solution to apartheid both here in I/P and in SA are territory and demographics.

9/25 The apartheid regime in SA collapsed most of all because it didn’t work. Its political concept of segregation - confining Black Africans to Bantusans - failed because it collided with the structure of SA’s economy, which was dependent on cheap African labor.

10/25 Look at the map. Jo’burg was meant to be a White area. However, the need for Black workers in the mines and elsewhere created non-White townships. See on the map the large presence of Black Africans in and around the city. (1 green dot = 5000 Black Africans)

11/25 As SA’s economy developed and further industrialized, the attempt to regulate Black Africans’ movement out of the Bantustans and into the White areas failed. Thus, SA outside of the Bantustans was not demographically White, as engineered, but overwhelmingly Black

12/25 Facing overwhelming non-White demographic superiority, accompanied by Balkanization of the territory and the failure to achieve territorial separation, the only relevant solution in South Africa was one state.

13/25 In fact, the Afrikaaner extremists (AWB) actually demanded a 2SS in the form of Afrikaaner independence, but there was no continuous territory with overwhelming Afrikaaner demographic superiority.

14/25 In I/P, even after 53 years of occupation, the Green Line still contains Pal demography to the oPt by preventing the flow of Pals into IL, thus protecting the Jewish majority that was achieved. By displacing Pals in 1948, IL made territorial segregation work.

15/25 As opposed to IL within the pre-67 borders, where Jews have demographic superiority, Palestinians still make up about 80% of the population of the WB, even after 53 years of settlements. (Today’s WB demographics are very similar to those of apartheid SA’s).

16/25 Between the river and the sea, the Pal population is still growing, despite enduring decades of oppression. In a way, Israel’s ruthless geographical policy is an attempt to cover up its inherent demographic weakness. This is not sustainable in the long-run.

17/25 Disengagement from Gaza was an amazing act of gerrymandering by Arik Sharon to erase 2 million Palestinians from the equation and artificially give Israel 70-30 demographics. https://bit.ly/2XjTWqo 

18/25 The separation barrier, as well, is an attempt to create a new line that will contain Palestinian demography from entering Israel, moving the border from the Green Line deeper into the WB, taking over as much land as possible with as few Palestinians.

19/25 Realistically, Israel’s default is the continuation of its apartheid in the oPt for the foreseeable future, unless forced otherwise. As for the solution, we are in a race against time between the two realistic options: 2SS or mass population transfer. The 1SS is a fantasy.

20/25 IL Jews at the peak of their power will not give up the demographic domination of 80-20 that they enjoy today inside the Green Line in order to give rights to all between the river and the sea (50-50 demographics) & the right of return, therefore, becoming a minority (30%).

21/25 Israeli annexationists know this as well and have proposed annexing the WB without Gaza, again gerrymandering the population between the river and the sea. The only legitimate solution is one that will bring full, equal rights to all people in I/P.

22/25 When we successfully pressure IL to end the occupation, even if Pals will demand equality without independence, IL will choose the territorial line that preserves Jewish demographic superiority. We must make sure that this will be based on the Green Line.

23/25 Let’s be clear- Israeli withdrawal to the line of the separation barrier or other unagreed upon changes to the border is not 2SS. A Palestinian entity without real sovereignty is not 2SS, rather a state and a bantustan. 2SS = two full sovereign states side by side.

24/25 As people guided by the principle of equality, for the reasons above, the 2 state solution, with equal rights in both states, should be our program. If territorial separation is dismantled, then we should move to a one-state paradigm.

25/25 Unfortunately, we are not close to this. Nevertheless, it is our responsibility to bring the occupation and the apartheid to an end and to prevent the transfer of Palestinians. At the end of the day, this must be the focus of all who believe in equality.
END