There are some interesting, but not conclusive, observations to be drawn from looking at the proportion of people who have SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in different regions.

According to PHE, in the 10 weeks up to week 49 (the last date with data) SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence changed as follows:

- in the NW it increased from ~5.5 to ~10.3 %
- in London it was roughly flat, at around 9%

I have estimated these by eye from the graph at page 68 of:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950424/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w1_FINAL.PDF

It had been previously postulated by @RealJoelSmalley and others that the pandemic was essentially over in London in June (after which time Covid became endemic), but there had been a genuine mini 2nd wave of Covid in Autumn in the NW and NE/Yorkshire.

Interestingly, this is borne out by excess mortality graphs:

In London, there has been no excess mortality since the week 33 heatwave.

The NW region has had a different Autumn though.

What about other regions?

Yorkshire and NE seropositivity also nearly doubled over that period.

Here is Yorkshire / Humber excess deaths:

And here is the NE:

SE region - largely flat seropositivity in last few months.

Excess deaths - none since the heatwave.

SW region, also flat seropositivity.

Excess deaths - little to see recently.

Midlands region (flat seropositivity), at first glance maybe doesn't fit the above, but I note that the excess death appears to have been a recent phenomenon so maybe insufficient time to seroconvert?

Excess in East Mids:

West Mids:

Finally, in the East of England, seropositivity was down then up a bit over the period, but broadly flat.

Excess deaths: