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Thread on College QB's and the draft.
Things to consider:
1. Data (including scout's evaluations)
2. High ceiling or low floor?
3. Experience? Does it matter?
4. Biases in data? (schedule, supporting cast, injuries)
5. CFB trajectory? Just last season? All CFB career?
1/n
Things to consider:
1. Data (including scout's evaluations)
2. High ceiling or low floor?
3. Experience? Does it matter?
4. Biases in data? (schedule, supporting cast, injuries)
5. CFB trajectory? Just last season? All CFB career?
1/n
Ranks (18,19,20)
Lawrence
rpm:11,7,14
cpoe:34,25,19
qbr:9,5,8
Fields
rpm:-,3,7
cpoe:-,4,3
qbr:-,3,2
Wilson
rpm:42,101,2
cpoe:24,45,1
qbr:45,69,4
Trask
rpm:-,49,12
cpoe: -,18,9
qbr:-,10,6
Jones
rpm:-,35,1
cpoe:-,20,2
qbr:-,-,1
2/n
Lawrence
rpm:11,7,14
cpoe:34,25,19
qbr:9,5,8
Fields
rpm:-,3,7
cpoe:-,4,3
qbr:-,3,2
Wilson
rpm:42,101,2
cpoe:24,45,1
qbr:45,69,4
Trask
rpm:-,49,12
cpoe: -,18,9
qbr:-,10,6
Jones
rpm:-,35,1
cpoe:-,20,2
qbr:-,-,1
2/n
Don't have pff access right now but 2020 they have Jones then Wilson then Fields.
Lawrence has been good every year and has the most experience, he doesn't seem to me like the guy with the highest ceiling but the QB with the highest floor.
3/n
Lawrence has been good every year and has the most experience, he doesn't seem to me like the guy with the highest ceiling but the QB with the highest floor.
3/n
I haven't seen much analysis about QB snaps in college predicting NFL success maybe it's real - with Trubisky and Haskins recently that has come into focus. Jones only started 1 season but played a bit last year. Only Wilson & Lawrence are 3 year starters.
4/n
4/n
RPM attempts to account for all players on field - other metrics don't. Jones surely had the best receivers but also faced tough defenses as did Trask and Fields. Wilson didn't play much competition this season but he turned a BYU PWO WR into an early draft entrant.
5/n
5/n
Do you value improvement? Lawrence didn't really get much better which would concern me a little about his upward potential. Fields had better metrics both seasons while Wilson, Trask, & Jones have shown clear signs of improvement.
6/n
6/n
Wilson's 2nd season is an interesting thing to look at. He faced the toughest competition that year and while he beat USC & Tennessee he wasn't too impressive. He was also coming off injury. Reasonable evaluation could not weigh it too much or it might make others cautious.
7/n
7/n
As @friscojosh points out -- no one metric is super predictive and there are lots of thing to consider. Personally, I think mocks are too high on Lawrence right now and I can make a good case for Fields or Wilson above him ... and maybe even Mac Jones. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfl-is-drafting-quarterbacks-all-wrong/
8/8
8/8
