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Why do we pay much more attention to #bitcoin 
metrics when it's undervalued and we tend to forget about them when it's becoming hot?
I'm worried an early major top could materialize, if an important correction doesn't come very soon because...
Brief thread
$BTC
metrics when it's undervalued and we tend to forget about them when it's becoming hot?I'm worried an early major top could materialize, if an important correction doesn't come very soon because...
Brief thread
$BTC
Credits to LookIntoBitcoin website for the awesome charts it offers for free to the public.
2/ Breaching the 2-Year MA x5 historically meant reaching a major top in less than a month.
We need a correction.
$BTC
We need a correction.
$BTC
3/ In the past, Puell Multiple>4 sent #bitcoin to a major top in around 2 weeks.
We need a correction.
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to a major top in around 2 weeks.We need a correction.
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4/ every time the Stock to Flow Model reached a positive variance, #bitcoin price overshoot to a major top in less than 2 months.
We need a correction
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price overshoot to a major top in less than 2 months.We need a correction
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5/ During previous cycles, when the price went above the 350DMAx2 without correcting for a retest we got a major top in around 2 months.
We need a correction.
$BTC
We need a correction.
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6/ Surpassing the Upper Bull High x3 in the past signified a major top in 1 or months.
We need a correction.
$BTC
We need a correction.
$BTC
7/ Historically, an oscillator value>0.50 resulted in a major top in a month or so.
We need a correction.
$BTC
We need a correction.
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8/ A MVRV Z-Score at these levels always brought to a major top in less than a month.
We need a correction.
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We need a correction.
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9/ Only in very short periods of time preceding past major tops we had RUPL values higher than now.
2013 = 82%
2013 = 83%
2017 = 79%
Jan 6th = 72%
We need a correction.
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2013 = 82%
2013 = 83%
2017 = 79%
Jan 6th = 72%
We need a correction.
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10/ This indicator saw higher numbers only in a brief spikes in August and December 2017.
We need a correction.
$BTC
We need a correction.
$BTC
11/ Keep in mind that all values in these charts are based on yesterday close, before we breached $38k.
So today are even higher.
So today are even higher.
12/ I must take this contrarian view against current sentiment to keep being rational and don't fall for the euphoria I can see all around.
There are also many encouraging metrics showing further upside, but I can't ignore all these signals.
There are also many encouraging metrics showing further upside, but I can't ignore all these signals.
13/ Signals that could very easily revert to a healthy condition through a nice pullback.
This time is different?
Shall we throw all these precious indicators in the bin as things of the past?
Should we lose our rationality for the narrative?
I don't think so. That's dangerous.
This time is different?
Shall we throw all these precious indicators in the bin as things of the past?
Should we lose our rationality for the narrative?
I don't think so. That's dangerous.
14/ In this other thread I post few other worrying metrics.
https://twitter.com/ama8999/status/1345591498243391488
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#bitcoin
/end
https://twitter.com/ama8999/status/1345591498243391488
$BTC
#bitcoin
/end
