'Modern mixed farming', that is how one agronomist explained it to me when describing their farms shift to cropping with less chemistry + integrating livestock. It's stuck with me ever since & is why I am chuffed to help @FFC_Commission launch #Farmingforchange at @ORFC /1

The new IDDRI UK model commissioned by @FFC_Commission explores the potential of a wholly agroecological food system in the UK. It's taken our understanding of modern mixed farming from inside the farm gate to linking with wider concerns on diet, climate, nature & trade /2

Our food & how we farm is such a polarising subject, attracting single issue challenges & at the same time silver bullet solutions. The reality is a system that comprises 16m+ ha of land, 60m+ mouths to feed & everything in between is too complicated for this kind of approach /3

#Farmingforchange explores a future food system for the UK based on a different approach, tackling the challenges of what we eat, what we produce, how we respond to climate change & restore biodiversity together, rather than apart. Embracing the complexity not ignoring it /4

There are five key stories in the report which we hope will provide helpful entry points to the model for different people, with different interests and expertise. Below is a taster of some of the figures attached to these stories... /5

Diet - Legumes/pulses play an important role in a future diet both for their protein content & for their ability to fix nitrogen in the soil. As a result we see a tripling in consumption + seven-fold increase in farmed area. Sheep meat remains static, beef drops by 25% /6

Nature - The model doubles the area for green infrastructures from 300,000ha to 603,000ha + increases agricultural land area for alternative uses, such as afforestation from 177,000ha to 1.2m hectares. 1.4m ha is allocated to agroforestry systems /7

Productivity - the model projects an average yield of 5.7t/ha for cereals in 2050 against conventional yields of 7.8t/ha today. This is a relatively positive situation for the UK (compared to other parts of the world) with a low risk of climate impact on future 2050 yields /8

Carbon - The model achieves a GHG emissions reduction of nearly 30Mt CO2/yr. It brings emissions from agriculture down by 38% to 47.5Mt CO2/yr by 2050, with 28.3Mt CO2/yr of this (60%) offset by carbon sequestration from forestry, agroforestry & green infrastructures /9

Livestock - livestock production as a whole declines by 36% in a 2050 scenario but beef production remains stable. With reduced beef consumption of 25%, but retaining pasture beef production similar to today, the UK ends up with a surplus of beef (+24%) for export /10

These figures provide a glimpse into the complexity of the model. It doesn't yet account for fast developing knowledge on soils, carbon & methane, but we hope it provides a start for many people to explore the future with a broad view rather than a narrow one /11