<THREAD> A little over four years ago, I wrote a thread about the dangers of Russian hybrid warfare and Trump. It got some accolades, a flood of mockery. "Extreme," "unhinged," the blue-checks laughed.

Let's go back and review why I forecast a danger like yesterday's.
The original "Game Theory" thread is broken up due to some problem of Twitter's. You can read the entirety here, also an audio podcast of it.

I forecast extreme disruption from Trump due to Russian hybrid warfare techniques already targeting America. https://www.ericgarland.co/2018/04/13/time-for-some-game-theory/
It's Time for Some Game Theory - the original thread - Eric Garland

The "Game Theory" thread of December 11, 2016 was, according to many, the first time the realities of Russian involvement in the 2016 election cut through the noise. Here is the original text.

https://www.ericgarland.co/2018/04/13/time-for-some-game-theory/
Some (not all) national security analysts were already hyper-sensitive to the threat of Russian covert operations, which seemed to reach an audacious acute threat in Trump, who seemed like a straight-up weapon of their political warfare. https://twitter.com/ericgarland/status/808046198145875970
If you understood post-Soviet Russian warfare you saw they used:
- Cyberwarfare (Estonia, 2007)
- Irregular "separatists" (Ukraine, 2014)
- Denigration of democratic institutions (1917-present)
- Propping up extremist demagogues (1917-present)

That all converged in 2016.
If you understood post-Soviet Russian warfare you saw they used:- Cyberwarfare (Estonia, 2007)- Irregular "separatists" (Ukraine, 2014)- Denigration of democratic institutions (1917-present)- Propping up extremist demagogues (1917-present)That all converged in 2016.
If you understood post-Soviet Russian warfare you saw they used:- Cyberwarfare (Estonia, 2007)- Irregular "separatists" (Ukraine, 2014)- Denigration of democratic institutions (1917-present)- Propping up extremist demagogues (1917-present)That all converged in 2016.
If you understood post-Soviet Russian warfare you saw they used:- Cyberwarfare (Estonia, 2007)- Irregular "separatists" (Ukraine, 2014)- Denigration of democratic institutions (1917-present)- Propping up extremist demagogues (1917-present)That all converged in 2016.
If you understood post-Soviet Russian warfare you saw they used:- Cyberwarfare (Estonia, 2007)- Irregular "separatists" (Ukraine, 2014)- Denigration of democratic institutions (1917-present)- Propping up extremist demagogues (1917-present)That all converged in 2016.
As I stated Dec 11, 2016, and as the actual Intelligence Community officially explained exactly four years ago, Russia's actions in conjunction with Trump and the GOP went beyond typical espionage, even normal Russian Active Measures. It was a full attack. https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf
Watch the 1984 video of Soviet "defector" Yuri Bezmenov explaining how Russian intel breaks down a country. Does it not explain yesterday?:

Slowly degrade a country's institutions, culture, economy. Create a crisis. Take over with a strongman. Normalize.
The pattern of this classic Russian covert operational strategy was clear once Trump won - and even experts here were caught off guard by its new sophistication and efficacy.

But once you got slapped awake, you could see how recognizable the pattern was:
- Instilling hatred of government (1980-)
- Wall Street takeover/sacking of economy (1980-)
- Extremist movements (Tea Party, a few "socialists")
- Normalization of gun violence
- Lowering political discourse

and then

- Seduce the right-wing into preferring Putin over Obama
And so, in my Dec 11, 2016 thread, I called out Wikileaks - which we today know is a front for Russian intelligence and not journalism. https://twitter.com/ericgarland/status/808048287702011904
I called out the Alt-Right as a Russian front with domestic traitors as partners. https://twitter.com/ericgarland/status/808051224268435456
I note the tell-tale sign of Russia using controlled opposition of both Left and Right to achieve destabilization of political institutions. https://twitter.com/ericgarland/status/808058986872369153
I called out ZeroHedge, RT, and Russian infiltration of social media: https://twitter.com/ericgarland/status/808060287710531588
I noted that the Intelligence Community - which was not, it appears, getting through to the Administration at the time - realized how fast the situation was getting extremely dangerous. https://twitter.com/ericgarland/status/808065502513889290
I tremulously noted that, by the time this attack was understood broadly, there were very few good options aside from shredding the Constitution to keep this bastard foreign agent Trump from taking office. https://twitter.com/ericgarland/status/808065900511395840?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E808065900511395840%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thestranger.com%2Fslog%2F2016%2F12%2F12%2F24742100%2Fepic-eric-garland-twitter-threadnovellaopus
Also, that the IC was trapped in calling out the deep, disturbing penetration of U.S. critical infrastructure.

(If news made it to me - and I have no clearance - then it was Very Bad. And it was.) https://twitter.com/ericgarland/status/808066236752007170
Lest this seem like a total victory lap of foresight, I clearly got that rotten lickspittle treasonous sack of shit Lindsey Graham wrong, though he kept up a good front. https://twitter.com/ericgarland/status/808067474897911809
Mostly, on the afternoon of Sunday, December 11, 2016 I was full of hope - because I was scared shitless of the next four years.

This would be America's ultimate test. https://twitter.com/ericgarland/status/808068104798359552
And this - to the pampered, career-obsessed blue-check journalists - clearly seemed laughably over-the-top, like Trump was extra zany George W. Bush.

But he was not. Trump's presidency would always end up with Little Green MAGAs in the Capitol. https://twitter.com/ericgarland/status/808068390791315456
Scared as I was, then as now, I felt and still feel that we are a great nation with an elegant, resilient system of government that was under assault by rogue agents.

FINALLY, more people will understand that after tomorrow. And clean them out. https://twitter.com/ericgarland/status/808068909437960193
But first, we had to be humbled. We had know that demagogues are not just for "third world countries," but for our relatives at the dinner table. That America has tragic failings that can metastasize if we aren't careful.

Only now can we move ahead. https://twitter.com/ericgarland/status/808071164346204160
DON'T GET IT TWISTED, THOUGH.

We goddamn near almost lost this country, just now.

All the wrong people thought it was some joke, that nothing bad would ever happen to them. That their vote wouldn't be stolen THROUGH BROKEN GLASS AT THE CAPITOL. https://twitter.com/ericgarland/status/808072500483592195
Then, as now, it was time to put our heads down and work to save America.

I just hope that yesterday's disgusting blasphemy at the Capitol brings more of us together to do that work. Indivisible. https://twitter.com/ericgarland/status/808073316401606656
Many have already undertaken inspiring, historic work. Much of America is stronger, more pluralistic, more unified, and more progressive because of this attack.
Real leaders have emerged, and are wasting no time.
We will shortly have a Department of JUSTICE again worthy of the name - and laws will be enforced with great vigor.

Good and hard, I figure.
But first, we take out the trash.

Let's go.

</THREAD>
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