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There was an armed insurrection at the U.S. Capitol yesterday in which the police were complicit in a way that has everything to do with structural racism. And that is not our only crisis. I'm going to cover the UI data, which shows a labor market in turmoil as COVID surges. 0/
Another 948,00 people applied for UI last week, including 787,000 people who applied for regular state UI and 161,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). 1/ https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
The 948,000 who applied for UI last week was a decrease of 152,000 from the prior week. That drop was driven almost entirely by a drop in PUA claims, undoubtedly due to uncertainty over whether PUA would be extended, as Trump delayed signing the relief bill. 2/
Now that the program has been extended (more on that below), I expect PUA claims to rise again in coming weeks. 3/
Last week was the 42nd straight week total initial claims were greater than the worst week of the Great Recession (GR). (If you restrict to regular state claims—b/c we didn’t have PUA in the GR—initial claims last week were still greater than the second-worst week of the GR.) 4/
Most states provide 26 weeks of regular benefits. Given the length of this crisis, many workers have exhausted their regular state UI benefits. In the most recent data, continuing claims for regular state UI dropped by 126,000. 5/
After an individual exhausts regular state benefits, they can move onto Pandemic Emergency Unemp Compensation (PEUC), which is an additional 24 weeks of regular state UI (the December COVID relief bill increased the number of weeks of PEUC eligibility by 11, from 13 to 24). 6/
However, in the most recent data available for PEUC, the week ending Dec 19, PEUC claims dropped by 293,000. That was undoubtedly due to exhaustions. More than 2 million workers exhausted the original 13 weeks of PEUC before Congress passed the extensions. 7/
These workers are eligible for the additional 11 weeks, but they will need to recertify. We can expect PEUC numbers to swell dramatically as this occurs. 8/
Continuing claims for PUA dropped by 71,000 in the latest data—the week ending Dec 19, before the relief bill, so that drop was undoubtedly due to exhaustions, i.e. temporary. The COVID relief bill also extended the total weeks of PUA eligibility by 11, from 39 to 45 weeks. 9/
Those who had exhausted the original 39 weeks of PUA before Congress passed the extensions are eligible for the additional 11 weeks, but they will need to recertify. Workers who were still on PUA (or PEUC) when Congress passed the bill will not need to recertify. 10/
The 11-week extensions of PEUC and PUA just kick the can down the road—they are not long enough. Without additional action by Congress, millions will exhaust benefits in mid-March, when the virus is still surging and job opportunities are still scarce. 11/
This chart shows continuing claims in all programs over time (the latest data for this are for Dec 19). Continuing claims are still more than 17 million above where they were a year ago (even with the exhaustions occurring during the time period covered by this chart). 12/
Republicans in the Senate allowed FPUC, the across-the-board $600 increase in weekly UI benefits, to expire at the end of July. Fortunately, in the Dec. COVID relief bill, FPUC was reinstated—but at just $300. 13/
And, the $300 is not retroactive, so unemployed workers will get no additional payments for the five months the FPUC was not in place. 14/
(As a reference, this blog post by @EvermoreMichele is a great summary of the UI provisions in the December COVID relief bill.) 15/ https://www.nelp.org/blog/unemployment-benefits-covid-short-term-partial-relief-bill/
One reason it’s unfortunate FPUC was reduced to $300, and that it is not retroactive, is that UI is extremely effective economic stimulus. Reinstating the full $600 FPUC would have created or saved *millions* more jobs. 16/
There are now 26.1 million workers who are either unemployed, otherwise out of work because of the virus, or have seen a drop in hours and pay because of the pandemic. And job growth is slowing. More relief is desperately needed. 17/ https://www.epi.org/blog/the-economy-president-elect-biden-is-inheriting-more-than-26-million-workers-15-5-of-the-workforce-are-being-directly-hurt-by-the-coronavirus-downturn/
One reason more relief is so important is that this crisis is greatly exacerbating racial inequality. Due to the impact of historic & current systemic racism, Black and Latinx workers have seen more job loss in this pandemic, and have less wealth to fall back on. 18/
Even with the $900 billion COVID bill, we still need more than $2 trillion in relief. A key missing piece from the latest bill is aid to state & local govts—w/o it, state & local govt austerity will cost millions of jobs in the public & private sector. 19/ https://www.epi.org/blog/without-federal-aid-to-state-and-local-governments-5-3-million-workers-will-likely-lose-their-jobs-by-the-end-of-2021-see-estimated-job-losses-by-state/
Fortunately, with their new majority in the Senate, Democrats can now get more relief measures through reconciliation. Top priorities are aid to state and local governments and additional weeks of UI. There is no time to lose. 20/
And here's this tweet thread as a blog post. fin/ https://www.epi.org/blog/first-ui-claims-of-2021-are-still-higher-than-the-worst-of-the-great-recession/
Earlier in this thread I said "The COVID relief bill also extended the total weeks of PUA eligibility by 11, from 39 to 45 weeks." This is...obviously wrong. The weeks were increased from 39 to 50.
