With base metals booming, here's what I am looking for in a sustained runner. I start with:
* DFS/BFS stage
* In mine development
* production within two years or less
* Bullish commodity outlook
* Fully permitted
* EV <$150m
* Multiple finance options
* Tight register

1/3...
I then read the DFS/BFS. What I look for is:
* High POST-tax NPV, ideally $1bn+
* Low initial capex
* Strong EBITDA or FCF $100m+ ave annual
* Long LoM (20+ years) but ok with shorter LoM if clear expansion prospects
* Commodity price assumptions that lag current prices

2/3...
I'm LESS focused on a high IRR. A common misconception is that a high IRR beats a low IRR. Read up on this.

Exploration upside is only a bonus for me. I want the NPV val to stack up without this. But I don't ignore junior projects with low NPV/high IRR if they offer a trade

3/3
Further to IRR: I don't have a problem with a high IRR, I just don't think it means what people think it means. You'll see high IRR on low capex projects, but low capex might also mean that the project isn't worth a big cap spend, i.e. limited upside. Worth reading up on IRR
I've been reminded to add disclaimers here:
* THE ABOVE IS NOT FIN ADVICE, my opinion only
* This is how I short-list/stock pick, it's NOT how I value
* I use this approach for most resources, not just base metals
* I look for as many boxes to tick as possible, not all
* All IMO
You can follow @CurlewisASX.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:

By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our Cookie Policy to improve your experience.