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My money (a personal, not professional, opinion): they’ve already invoked A25s4
Here’s the first part. Note two things:
—VP’s assumption of presidential powers and duties is *immediate* upon the conveyance of the declaration
—there’s no provision requiring the public to be notified
—VP’s assumption of presidential powers and duties is *immediate* upon the conveyance of the declaration
—there’s no provision requiring the public to be notified
Second paragraph. The wording’s a doozy but basically: if the paragraph 1 declaration of inability is contradicted by the President (I am assuming it would be in this case), he resumes executive powers and duties, *unless the declaration by VP & Secretaries (above) is reiterated*
in that case (which, again, I assume in this instance has already happened or will happen very shortly), Congress decides. It takes 2/3 vote to withhold executive powers and duties from the President. But. But. They get 21 days.
Guess what is fewer than 21 days away? The end of Trump’s term. And by my reading (which might be wrong but I don’t think it is), until that clock runs out or a vote is forced, *VP retains powers and duties of the office* (see “continue...resume”).
(hold pls, kindergarten bedtime)
Okay, a few more things:
I am basing this hunch on news reports and statements that seem, by their wording, to indicate that all forward motion today was accomplished without consulting the President. Look at my RTs for most of this: deployment of National Guard at Pence’s order;
I am basing this hunch on news reports and statements that seem, by their wording, to indicate that all forward motion today was accomplished without consulting the President. Look at my RTs for most of this: deployment of National Guard at Pence’s order;
Pelosi’s statement about the House reconvening, which mentions DOJ, Pence, and the Pentagon but notably omits any mention of Trump; and Trump’s bizarre failure to appear publicly today in any format except via Tweets, which were subsequently removed.
It’s worth pausing to consider the content of Trump’s two material “statements”(tweets, one a video and one text), because it’s pretty clear to me that they’d support a claim of inability to perform the duties of his office. Transcript and screen cap below.
Under my theory, when it became clear (based, I’d guess, on his remarks at the “rally,” his tweets about Pence, and his failure or refusal to respond promptly when the breach of Capitol security first occurred) that Trump wasn’t going to do his job, they worked around him w/25A.
(Side note: the deployment of the National Guard to secure the Capitol without Trump’s order would’ve been essentially illegal if they had NOT invoked the Amendment; public acknowledgement that Trump wasn’t involved is pretty telling) https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1346943293171658755
So then the question is: now what? Based on my reading of the text, I think it’s constitutionally possible that they’d just keep Pence as acting VP until the clock runs out. There’s time. But I hope (and think, with cautious optimism) that’s not the endgame. I hope they I&R him.
Here’s why I’m willing to make that guess publicly: impeachment and removal is the only way to disqualify Trump from running again in 2024. In the past few hours, several Rs who had planned to challenge Biden’s win (pre-coup) have announced the withdrawal of those objections.
Based on that movement, and on Trump’s utterly unacceptable (and frankly bizarre! “We love you. You’re very special”?!) response to the domestic terrorists flying his flag, I’m guessing there are a lot of congressional Republicans who want Trump out of contention for 2024.
I honestly don’t know WHY this is the case, but it’s been clear for months that many Rs expected Trump, once defeated (which, let us reiterate, HE WAS), to simply fade into obscurity. Remember “what’s the harm of indulging him?” And “we’re just walking him through his emotions”?
