Thread by @Solzi_Sez, In the life cycle of an empire, where is America?Entering revolutions & [...]

In the life cycle of an empire, where is America?

Entering revolutions & civil wars phase... #FallOfEmpire

Let’s look at how these stages of empire line up with America...

PROSPERITY: American wealth exploded last century. The U.S. used WWII as an opportunity to set up a global empire controlling the Anglosphere, Japan/Korea, Hong Kong/Taiwan, Middle East, Europe, etc. /2

Then Russia fell, which removed all resistance. The empire extracted resources/profits from its territories, and distributed back home (with loot trickle down to the blue city corporate upper middle class, and some to the middle class). But all this imperialism costs money... /3

DEBT BUBBLE: By 1980s a debt explosion, although you could say it started earlier with the social security Ponzi scheme. The govt had to fund the largest department of war that has ever existed, as well as pay out social insurance obligations snowballing into unpayable sums. /4

In 2005 Kotlikoff wrote the paper “Is the U.S. Bankrupt?” which addressed the grim realities of the financial math. In addition to tax cuts for wealthy, the 80s also brought a new iteration of corporatism, Friedmanism (aka neoliberalism), which concentrated wealth... /5

WEALTH GAP: By the 2000s the increasing wealth gap became impossible to ignore. Late-stage, the corporate system extracts profits from the masses, while externalizing costs onto them (cannibalization). The profits are redistributed based corporate participation and ownership. /6

This naturally brings Marxist-Leninists and Trumpers. The wealth gap probably contributed significantly to Obama/Trump, and of course the result of these presidencies was more corporate-state theft and a larger wealth gap. /7

DEBT BUST & MONEY PRINTING: I’ll link these two phases together. By the 2010s the U.S. is non-stop printing, and desperately using the propaganda (and bad math) of Modern Monetary Theory which says “debt is nothing, you can print forever, relax bro.” /8

Massive printing in 2008 when the mortgage debt bubble popped, and then again in 2020 when the wider corporate debt bubble popped. And in the pipe, another ~$50 trillion of obligations to boomers loom which will have to be printed. All while maintaining their aging military. /9

REVOLUTIONS: Bannon was the first, who said “this is the last chance to try this peacefully within the bounds of the system.” And that was tried. But of course democracy is fake, it’s a tool of the system to control the masses, so now people know voting won’t work. /10

This only leaves options outside the system. Various other revolutionaries are popping up, though most are still fake (Cortez, Bernie, Trump, etc). But what’s important to understand is they are just supplying the demand. Demand exists, and it’s growing; growing fast. /11

SUMMARY: As the fall of the American empire progresses, things will get worse for the 50 states (as their loot will be cut off, but the govt will keep spending for war, and the homeland will wither). Fake revolutionaries will be revealed, and real hardliners will emerge. /12

In this final empire decline nobody can know the time horizon; I wouldn’t be surprised if the U.S. govt fell by 2050. But things keep happening faster than I expect. 13/13

[Chart from Ray Dalio research project on history of empires]

Cc: @caitoz @BenjaminNorton @dancohen3000

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