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Political Scientist here:
Yes, that is political violence.
Yes, this is an attempted coup.
Yes, the US Polity score will take a hit.
Yes, that is political violence.
Yes, this is an attempted coup.
Yes, the US Polity score will take a hit.
To elaborate:
- "electoral violence" to be exact.
- military wasn't involved (canonical case), but *attempt* is key (and that it was incited by commander in chief is significant).
- I say it goes to 6. Democracy held, but we ain't "consolidated"
- "electoral violence" to be exact.
- military wasn't involved (canonical case), but *attempt* is key (and that it was incited by commander in chief is significant).
- I say it goes to 6. Democracy held, but we ain't "consolidated"
Though (h/t @_ChristinaBoyes) it appears that the Polity Project had already downgraded the US to a 5 ( https://www.systemicpeace.org/ )
I'll admit, I'm skeptical of this decision.
Part of their rationale was a weakening of "Executive Constraints", which I actually thought have been shown to be quite strong (i.e. they are the reason Trump is frustrated).
Part of their rationale was a weakening of "Executive Constraints", which I actually thought have been shown to be quite strong (i.e. they are the reason Trump is frustrated).
Here is their explanation:
Now, I could be okay with Polity=5 if Polity ALSO adjusts their scores for say, the 1850s and 1840s.
Let's see. Hmmm...Nope. So US is apparently LESS democratic today than when it had slavery and male-only suffrage
Let's see. Hmmm...Nope. So US is apparently LESS democratic today than when it had slavery and male-only suffrage
Regardless, the events today show that the US is NOT (and probably never has been) a country where "elections" and "peaceful transfer of power" should be taken for granted.
P.S. for those wanting to know more about this event being classified as a “coup attempt”, this short thread is helpful... https://mobile.twitter.com/JHWeissmann/status/1346948370124836865
...and this @ForeignPolicy article by @profmusgrave https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/06/coup-america-capitol-electoral-college-2020-election/
P.S.S. While I disagree, definitely worth engaging arguments that the event yesterday did NOT precisely classify as a coup attempt, namely these detailed threads by @naunihalpublic... https://twitter.com/naunihalpublic/status/1346930933421789186
Indeed, my work with @jurpelai focused largely on the military role in coups and the breakdown of civ-mil relations (so, based on that alone, I should side with the "no coup attempt" argument) https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07CJHZSS8/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1
But there are a lot of elements of what happened yesterday (some unique to the US system -- shared sovereignty; lame duck period; pres as commander-in-chief) that make it hard to cleanly classify. But, on balance, I side with "coup attempt".
P.S.S.S. And now we have more information that suggests "attempted coup" will likely end up being the right classification https://twitter.com/nktpnd/status/1347353237339430915
