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The Podcast Wars are underhyped
No one owns audio; everyone wants to.
Who is winning the war?
What's next for the podcast space?
Is it too late to start a podcast?
No one owns audio; everyone wants to.
Who is winning the war?
What's next for the podcast space?
Is it too late to start a podcast?
Two years ago, it was pretty clear that Apple was the leader.
Mirroring its handling of iTunes vs. Spotify, Apple had spent almost no effort on podcasts until everyone else did their best Bezos
"Your [ignored market share] is our opportunity" https://twitter.com/ekhornung/status/1093116921774555141?s=20
Mirroring its handling of iTunes vs. Spotify, Apple had spent almost no effort on podcasts until everyone else did their best Bezos
"Your [ignored market share] is our opportunity" https://twitter.com/ekhornung/status/1093116921774555141?s=20
Since then, the acquisitions started and accelerated.
(It's been eye-opening running a podcast and launching a network with @jayclouse during all this activity.) https://twitter.com/TrungTPhan/status/1346614962987401217?s=20
(It's been eye-opening running a podcast and launching a network with @jayclouse during all this activity.) https://twitter.com/TrungTPhan/status/1346614962987401217?s=20
The big headlines that no one really discussed: Amazon and Twitter entered the fight https://techcrunch.com/2021/01/04/twitter-acquires-social-podcasting-app-breaker-team-to-help-build-twitter-spaces/
Quick aside and HUGE shoutout to @AlexCartaz who called out Twitter as an under-the-radar potential winner of the Podcast Wars https://medium.com/@AlexCartaz/twitter-should-make-a-podcast-app-de6f00486f12
The acquisitions started off in three categories:
- supply of content (production studios, popular networks, personalities)
- tools (creator tools, production tools)
- audience grabs (podcatchers, players)
notably absent: hosting services, monetization, discovery
- supply of content (production studios, popular networks, personalities)
- tools (creator tools, production tools)
- audience grabs (podcatchers, players)
notably absent: hosting services, monetization, discovery
How does this progress?
I think it will look a lot like a mix between the Netflixification of tv/movie and the Twitchification of streaming.
Platforms will buy:
- content exclusivity (i.e. Rogan/Ninja/Chappelle)
- creator tools for production (i.e. Anchor/Streamlabs)
I think it will look a lot like a mix between the Netflixification of tv/movie and the Twitchification of streaming.
Platforms will buy:
- content exclusivity (i.e. Rogan/Ninja/Chappelle)
- creator tools for production (i.e. Anchor/Streamlabs)
Remember when everyone launched a streaming service at an increasingly high content cost? In audio, you can buy instead of build https://www.ft.com/content/4f7f4326-c2bf-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9
The legacy players will take notice, accelerating the number of deals on a smaller supply of shows with track-records.
A sweet spot emerges where premium pricing is paid for shows/networks as buyers become emotional, pressured, and competitive.
Ad sale "synergies" justify price
A sweet spot emerges where premium pricing is paid for shows/networks as buyers become emotional, pressured, and competitive.
Ad sale "synergies" justify price
Those that get purchased will be those (i) with big/growing names or (ii) that have established focused consistency.
The podcast space is full of inconsistent publishers; representing high risk for a roll-up. https://twitter.com/ekhornung/status/1345775884108783616?s=20
The podcast space is full of inconsistent publishers; representing high risk for a roll-up. https://twitter.com/ekhornung/status/1345775884108783616?s=20
Networks either compete on downloads or niche
Downloads = venture investing (find scale)
Niche = value investing (find consistency)
Most podcasts focus on downloads. I think future buyers will look beyond the downloads. Why?
Higher CPM with focus
Community with focus
Downloads = venture investing (find scale)
Niche = value investing (find consistency)
Most podcasts focus on downloads. I think future buyers will look beyond the downloads. Why?
Higher CPM with focus
Community with focus
Start up / roll up niche networks are centered around theme, industry, or career.
The trend will accelerate. Indie podcasts will join or be recruited by more networks. Networks will merge into other networks.
(fwiw: the current network model is ripe for disruption)
The trend will accelerate. Indie podcasts will join or be recruited by more networks. Networks will merge into other networks.
(fwiw: the current network model is ripe for disruption)
If you have an audience that you don't want to lose, you become a buyer.
Not just Sirius/Spotify, but:
Newscorp, New York Times, Daily Mail, Bloomberg, Sinclair, Tribune, Dow Jones, NY Post, WaPo, USA Today, ESPN... https://twitter.com/ekhornung/status/1344369216217034752?s=20
Not just Sirius/Spotify, but:
Newscorp, New York Times, Daily Mail, Bloomberg, Sinclair, Tribune, Dow Jones, NY Post, WaPo, USA Today, ESPN... https://twitter.com/ekhornung/status/1344369216217034752?s=20
How do you take advantage of this?
Do not think about podcasts in terms of 50k+ downloads.
Think about podcasts as MicroSaaS cos without engineers + this makes sense. (h/t @awilkinson)
Draw your city limits
Create a city-based monopoly
Do not think about podcasts in terms of 50k+ downloads.
Think about podcasts as MicroSaaS cos without engineers + this makes sense. (h/t @awilkinson)
Draw your city limits
Create a city-based monopoly
A city is an apt metaphor
Buffet said: "No paper in a [20th c] one-paper city, however bad the product or however inept the management, could avoid gushing profits"
You don't have to compete globally when you can dominate locally with a superb business model.
Buffet said: "No paper in a [20th c] one-paper city, however bad the product or however inept the management, could avoid gushing profits"
You don't have to compete globally when you can dominate locally with a superb business model.
Too late?
There are 25x less podcasts than there are YouTube channels.
Starting a podcast is (currently) platform agnostic which = optionality for exit
Only 23% of active podcasts published something in the last three 3 months
We are early in the podcast wars
There are 25x less podcasts than there are YouTube channels.
Starting a podcast is (currently) platform agnostic which = optionality for exit
Only 23% of active podcasts published something in the last three 3 months
We are early in the podcast wars
There is much change coming to podcasting in the next 5 years. New entrants and old competitors, heightened M&A activity, new tools for creators.
The fight for the ownership of audio is not complete.
The Podcast Wars won't be tied to the current leaderboard.
The fight for the ownership of audio is not complete.
The Podcast Wars won't be tied to the current leaderboard.
