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Some thoughts and reflections on the Gulf crisis as we reach the beginning of a resolution after the GCC summit in al-Ula â
Some thoughts and reflections on the Gulf crisis as we reach the beginning of a resolution after the GCC summit in al-Ula â
When Kuwait announced in early December that an agreement was reached to end the conflict, the announcement raised hopes but reactions seemed cautious. Saudi media in particular sought to play it down, saying the this may or may not lead to a deal https://www.riyadhbureau.com/p/saudi-qatar-rift
Speculation did not stop until Sheikh Tamim arrived in al-Ula and was welcomed with a warm hug by MBS at the airport, ushering the beginning of a new attempt to end a bitter dispute that has gripped the Gulf for more than three years: https://twitter.com/alekhbariyatv/status/1346393237746032643
Unclear if this would now lead to full reconciliation as many of the same issues remain in place, but a consensus has set in that itâs too costly to prolong a regional crisis that was marked by sharply negative media campaigns, manufactured drama and pretend brinkmanship
The 41st GCC leaders summit was the first time the event was held outside the six Gulf capital cities, and it was the first leaders meeting since the death of all the GCCâs founding fathers, the last of them was Sultan Qaboos of Oman who died in January 2020
Prince Mohammed chaired the meeting on behalf of his father, King Salman, whose absence was unexplained. He later remotely chaired a regular meeting for the cabinet from Neom. Jared Kushner was in attendance, along with Egyptian foreign minister Sameh Shoukry
MBS opening remarks included usual themes of GCC meetings such as unity and solidarity. Only other issue raised was the threat of Iranâs nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. As leaders signed âal-Ula Declaration,â he praised them for taking âtaking these courageous stepsâ
After the meeting, MBS took Sheikh Tamim for a 4x4 car ride and they did some sightseeing, a gesture suggesting warming personal ties: https://twitter.com/Bandaralgaloud/status/1346507361909927938
In return to Saudi Arabiaâs re-opening airspace and border, Qatar is expected to withdraw its legal complaints against its neighbours at WTO and ICAO. Saudi FM said ties would be fully restored with by all the four countries involved in the boycott. No mention of the 13 demands
âYou could say Qatar has won,â @abdulkhaleq_UAE told @FT. âThe cost of fighting was too high â there is a realisation now that this is the black sheep of the family and we just have to put up with it.â
Qatar would still be expected to make some concessions such as limiting support to MB and toning down the coverage by its media outlets. Meanwhile, Saudi analysts sought to frame the decision to mend ties as a sign of the kingdomâs wisdom in the face of more pressing issues
âThe embrace [between MBS and Qatarâs ruler] shows it was not a personal grudge, it was about our security and regional security,â said a Saudi columnist on Al Arabiya, where a good chunk of the coverage felt like a tourism promo dedicated to showing the natural beauty of al-Ula
From US perspective, it was a fitting parting gift for the Trump admin. âIt doesnât mean they will love each other and be best friends, but it does mean they will be able to work together,â a senior official told @WSJ. Also, one less headache for incoming Biden admin to deal with
For the cottage industry of media and punditry class who got involved in the verbal wars, this was a moment of reckoning. As @ralothman1 reported, hate songs are being removed from YouTube, nasty tweets are being deleted, and Saudi analysts are appearing on Al Jazeera again
Many people now justify their previous attacks by saying it was in defence of the homeland in a battle described by their leaders in existential terms. Now that the rulers have decided to make up, they are simply going to listen and obey (âŰłÙ
Űčۧ Ù۷ۧŰčŰ©â) as they have always done
Saudi ultranationalists like to throw the word âmercenariesâ against foreigners who work for Qatar-owned media. Those foreigners tend to respond by saying they are being engaged in legitimate criticism. This will probably be remembered as an embarrassing episode for all involved
Finally, and more importantly, a huge relief for Gulf families and businesses who for 3.5 years had to bear the brunt of a boycott that GCC citizens feared would squander gains made over the last 30 years.
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