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THREAD: Let's play a game. You're a scout for your favorite team and you own the #1 pick and need a franchise QB. The GM has ask you for your recommendation on which QB to draft and if either of them are worth a 1st rd pick.
Not a trick question and don't cheat
Not a trick question and don't cheat
This is all the information you have to go
QB 1: 3 year starter 6-5 245
QB 1: 3 year starter 6-5 245
QB 2: 4 year starter 6-5 230
Grade them, are either of these QB's a 1st rd pick?
Which QB are you recommending to your GM?
I will start by saying drafting QB's is fucking difficult - for so many reasons some not captured here - and therefore there is no magic bullet for drafting a QB. However, having said that just because it's hard doesn't mean you have to make it more difficult on yourself.
The purpose of this exercise was to show that although it's hard to draft QB's you can improve your chances and make life less difficult by simply eliminating QB's from your board that do not meet the standards of previously successful QB's.
IMO analytics is not about being perfect, it's simply about improving hit rates through a standardized process and you do so by filtering players out more so than identifying the next HOFer.
I'll start with question #2: Which QB would you recommend to your GM?
60% - Made the right choice & drafted Peyton Manning
28% - just set your franchise back by selecting Ryan Leaf
12% - Missed on Manning, but you didn't select Leaf so your franchise has options at least
60% - Made the right choice & drafted Peyton Manning
28% - just set your franchise back by selecting Ryan Leaf
12% - Missed on Manning, but you didn't select Leaf so your franchise has options at least
That was the easier question IMO. The harder one was are both 1st rd talents? The answer - even pre-Leaf locker room meltdown - was NO and it's was not even close. And indeed the results show this was the harder question.
Q1: Grade the prospects, are they 1st rd picks?
While 60% chose Manning only 34% thought he was the only 1st rd QB talent.
17% said it was Leaf - don't quit your day job
30% - said both were 1st rd picks
19% said neither were worth it
While 60% chose Manning only 34% thought he was the only 1st rd QB talent.
17% said it was Leaf - don't quit your day job
30% - said both were 1st rd picks
19% said neither were worth it
So using the same data how did I grade them as prospects?
P. Manning checked every single box - from breaking out as a FR to posting a QB rate over mid 140's every year. He proved multiple times over who he was as a QB and by breaking out early he proved his ceiling was higher
P. Manning checked every single box - from breaking out as a FR to posting a QB rate over mid 140's every year. He proved multiple times over who he was as a QB and by breaking out early he proved his ceiling was higher
Leaf on the other hand failed to breakout until his final season. His two previous seasons are HUGE red flags as those are numbers we see from UDFA/Day 3 QB's. His floor was much lower than Mannings.
In the end, using some basic stats it was easy to envision Peyton as the 1.01 and the only QB worth taking that early. Leaf graded out in tier 6 which is mid to late rd QB territory.
Congrats, most of you could do better with limited data than SD did with all their resources.
Congrats, most of you could do better with limited data than SD did with all their resources.
