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A question by journalist Tom Bateman during yesterday's briefing seems to lead Dr Russell to admit the Pandemic Task Force couldn't anticipate the surge in cases over the holidays.
But is that true?
But is that true?
Here I offer some responses to Dr Russell's statements; after my responses are [SOURCES] and [TRANSCRIPT] of her answer (the volume of the thread's content)
[THE QUESTION]
@tombatemann: I wonder if you and your colleagues contemplated this dramatic increase in cases 1/28
[THE QUESTION]
@tombatemann: I wonder if you and your colleagues contemplated this dramatic increase in cases 1/28
when you decided on how to advise us over the holidays? [1]
[MY COMMENTARY]
Russell made the following 5 points:
1: We couldn't predict this [increase in cases]
2: The UK variant threw a wrench into our plans
3: We think we act very quickly 2/28
[MY COMMENTARY]
Russell made the following 5 points:
1: We couldn't predict this [increase in cases]
2: The UK variant threw a wrench into our plans
3: We think we act very quickly 2/28
4: We set a reasonable close contacts target
5: Our plan relied heavily on hope
POINT 1: We couldn't predict this. 3/28
5: Our plan relied heavily on hope
POINT 1: We couldn't predict this. 3/28
Locally, NB has consistently demonstrated that a significant percentage of the population is not going to follow recommendations and requests, resulting in outbreaks. Globally it's the same. 4/28
Literally almost every piece of advice was to tighten restrictions to prevent an entirely predictable surge, regardless of location. NB was not different. Why would it be?
POINT 2: The UK variant threw a wrench into our plans. 5/28
POINT 2: The UK variant threw a wrench into our plans. 5/28
It shouldn't have -- they knew about it well before Christmas and had plenty of time to react to the data coming from the UK (who named the variant on Dec 1 [2]). The Feds closed the borders to air travel on Dec 20 [3] after massive public outcry. 6/28
At *any* time during this period NB could have tightened restrictions.
POINT 3: We think we act very quickly.
See point 2. Russell said they had "even prior to Christmas been looking at tightening things up". 7/28
POINT 3: We think we act very quickly.
See point 2. Russell said they had "even prior to Christmas been looking at tightening things up". 7/28
I think her use of "even" is telling: should we be impressed by their proactivity? ...But of course they were looking at tightening things up before Christmas. Right? Right?? This is not a claim to be proud of. That's the most basic planning possible. 8/28
POINT 4: We set a reasonable close contacts target.
Respectfully, a "goal" of 20 close contacts is unreasonable in terms of reducing spread. 9/28
Respectfully, a "goal" of 20 close contacts is unreasonable in terms of reducing spread. 9/28
Contact tracing assumes generally that people have 20 close contacts [4] without restrictions in place so why not encourage people to have fewer[5]? 10/28
Russell has been all over the map on close contacts, but they don't seem to be making evidence-based decisions on close contacts. 10? 20? 5? Russell has never been clear or consistent on close contacts and that's evident here as well [6]. 11/28
Ask around -- what's the consensus on NB's #Steady20? (preview: it's lols)
POINT 5: Our plan relied heavily on hope.
Saving the best for last, this is a very concerning statement. 12/28
POINT 5: Our plan relied heavily on hope.
Saving the best for last, this is a very concerning statement. 12/28
Russell's plan was to 'hope' they escaped the holidays unscathed and that their *current* response model would work as it has to date.
That's it. That's the sum total of the plan: Hope. Set minimal restrictions, ask strongly but nicely, and wait to see what happens. 13/28
That's it. That's the sum total of the plan: Hope. Set minimal restrictions, ask strongly but nicely, and wait to see what happens. 13/28
When you boil down what Dr Russell said yesterday I think NB has cause for concern. The outbreak we're experiencing was preventable and predictable with proportional restrictions. 14/28
We're a year into this pandemic and there's just no excuse for this level of decision making incompetence. Why do we accept this response? Why is NB not following best practices along with other jurisdictions? 15/28
Is someone blocking Russell from making better recommendations?
Our health system is crushingly close to collapse and if we see exponential growth I'm afraid we'll quickly find ourselves in the same boat as everyone else. 16/28
Our health system is crushingly close to collapse and if we see exponential growth I'm afraid we'll quickly find ourselves in the same boat as everyone else. 16/28
If that happens, it will be our finding out -- that we've been lucky and isolated, not particularly adept at stamping out Covid-19.
[SOURCES]
[1]
[2] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.30.20249034v2.full.pdf
[3] https://twitter.com/BillBlair/status/1340833774469300229?s=20
[4] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/contact-tracing/contact-tracing-plan/appendix.html 17/28
[SOURCES]
[1]
[2] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.30.20249034v2.full.pdf
[3] https://twitter.com/BillBlair/status/1340833774469300229?s=20
[4] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/contact-tracing/contact-tracing-plan/appendix.html 17/28
[5] https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/prevention-risks/measures-reduce-community/private-indoor-gatherings.html
[6] https://twitter.com/feltford/status/1328716613286326275?s=2
[TRANSCRIPT OF DR RUSSELL'S COMMENTS]
Russell: So I don't have a crystal ball so at no time during the pandemic could I ever guarantee anything other than that there are no guarantees. That's the simple answer. 18/28
[6] https://twitter.com/feltford/status/1328716613286326275?s=2
[TRANSCRIPT OF DR RUSSELL'S COMMENTS]
Russell: So I don't have a crystal ball so at no time during the pandemic could I ever guarantee anything other than that there are no guarantees. That's the simple answer. 18/28
However, knowing what we know now -- I mean the introduction of the UK variant in terms of its significance around the world being in 30 countries right now, including Canada - that has thrown a wrench into our our planning and our ideas around what is safe for the… 19/28
…population as a whole, so our discussions around that have evolved since that information has been available; that other new information that we have to continue informing our decisions are around again the increasing number of cases globally, within Canada, as well as… 20/28
…in the US, and the the number of travelers that could introduce those risks to new brunswickers who haven't traveled. 21/28
so we were even prior to Christmas looking at ways of tightening things up so that we're minimizing the risks - understanding that if you have the visual concept of the Swiss pieces of Swiss cheese and the holes all lined up - that there's no one thing that was going… 22/28
…to, you know, aiming for a number in terms of close contacts around gatherings we knew that the risks were going to be greater, we were hopeful that we would be able to escape any scathing and untoward effects of the the travel combined with the gatherings, but we knew… 23/28
…that the risks were there and the problem with covid-19 is is once once the case is start they can increase exponentially at a very rapid rate and so taking action very swiftly and decisively very early has been the thing that has helped us throughout the pandemic. 24/28
we do hope that it helps at this time knowing that we do have another spike in cases that we expect to see over the weekend as a result of New year's Eve gatherings, but we have a strong team and we have strong commitment from everyone to work hard at getting this under… 25/28
…control and containing it as soon as possible and I do encourage everyone to again rededicate and recommit to this this approach in terms of resetting what we need to keep as a priority based on the fact that we do not want our immunization program to be impacted, we… 26/28
…don't want our healthcare system to be impacted, we know there is a risk of the UK variant being introduced that will increase the complexity by a large amount, and again we've been working hard for the last 9 months. 27/28
Now is not the time to lose that momentum so we all need to dig deep go hard and work together to get through this." /Russell 28/28