That we've already seen four NISMs this winter but the capacity mechanism auctions always clear for loose change is a gentle reminder that we don't have a capacity problem, we have a flexibility problem.

The low clearing price of the CM also reflects the lack of meaningful downside risk in participation. While that might derisk investment, it doesn't do anything to discourage cardboard plant. And the notification windows only work for a slow-moving crisis.

While renewables invariably get blamed for these notifications, it's worth noting that a large raft of nuclear capacity is also offline. The "we need nuclear to cover windless days" argument doesn't really work if it doesn't show up either.