While the core issues at the root of the #Gulf crisis are still to be resolved, some observations can be made about the ramifications the Gulf reconciliation may have, in particular for the triangle #UAE- #Qatar - #Israel.
Qatari media has leveled major criticism of the #AbrahamAccords, emphasizing Palestinian outrage and criticizing mostly the Emirati leadership for the diplomatic move; a reflection of both a direct competition with the UAE and of the broader boycott led by the Quartet.
In response, Emirati media - with Isr commentators - were keen on bolstering the narrative that Qatar’s criticism is hypocritical. (See Eli Avidar’s comments on Sky News Arabia).
The question is: what is, in the closer ties btw #Israel & the #UAE, that mostly worries Qatar?
Step back:Qatar’s rel with Isr date back to the 1990s. It was the first GCC state to grant de facto recognition to Isr; in 1996 (Peres’ 1st visit to Doha), trade repr offices were opened;Qatar pays $30m per month to Gaza, and it has been def as a crucial mediator btw Hamas & Isr
1. Given the extensive competition btw #Qatar & #UAE, and their massive investments in US consultants, PR firms, etc, the #US-brokered peace deal suggests that the UAE has now developed an edge in leveraging the White House and influential pro-Israel policy circles in D.C.
2. The Emirati embassy in TA will likely be proactive in engaging with Israel’s diplomatic and economic elites, as demonstrated by Emirati officials and scholars that have been flooding Israeli media right after the deal, sharing views on how to solve the Isr-Pal conflict. ->
...Given Qatar’s unique space in the peace process as a bridge btw Hamas and #Israel, the Emirati new position might be perceived as a threat to Qatar’s status.
3. The #UAE may be able to shape the balance of power on another core issue. Over the past years, Qatari media has placed great emphasis on a narrative defending Islamic holy sites in Jerusalem. (See Al-Jazeera’s reports on how Al-Aqsa is in 'great danger'). ->
...This messaging has taken advantage of Jordan's lack of fin resources and rel light reg weight to overshadow Jordan’s official custodianship of Al-Aqsa. Now that the #UAE will fly Muslims from its airports to Jerusalem, the Qatari narrative might lose its appeal. ->
...Additionally, presenting itself as the bridge btw the Muslim world and Al-Aqsa, the #UAE might gain religious prestige.
So now that #Qatar is back to the fold, how is this going to translate in terms of its posture vis à vis the #normalizationprocess, and the new regional architecture?
You can follow @LudovicaCastel5.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:

By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our Cookie Policy to improve your experience.