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In 2021, pressure on Pakistan will come from the front, from behind, from the right, from the left, from above and from beneath...
How?
How?
The pressure on the country is going to come on the economic front, from obvious places like the IMF programme, the FATF review in February, loan repayments to the Gulf countries, and increased Chinese fatigue with the inanities of Pakistan’s domestic disputes.
Pressure will also come from some less obvious places.
The holes being plugged with the makeshift craftsmanship that is the bread and butter of Pakistan’s establishment ignores the reality that the only way to manage organic political processes is through organic politics.
The holes being plugged with the makeshift craftsmanship that is the bread and butter of Pakistan’s establishment ignores the reality that the only way to manage organic political processes is through organic politics.
In the fight to defend itself from India, Pakistan must prepare as if it is alone. Reliance on China, or any other country, or any set of international rules or norms only emboldens India’s aggression. In 2021, this preparation must begin and end with coherence of message.
Much of what the Biden Administration eventually does in 
will impact Pakistan in myriad ways. Managing that fallout requires not only the building of strong bridges between Islamabad & Kabul, but also ways and means to tackle spoilers meant to toxify the relationship.
will impact Pakistan in myriad ways. Managing that fallout requires not only the building of strong bridges between Islamabad & Kabul, but also ways and means to tackle spoilers meant to toxify the relationship.
Iran’s regional ambitions & the ideology it uses to mobilise citizens of other countries in service of those ambitions need to be checked. So too does the appetite for regime change in the West. Pakistan must navigate the complexity of Pakistan-Iran relations much better.
The pressure from above will come in the shape of a rehashed Biden counterterrorism doctrine that privileges 
remote war capability.
But precision munitions, sharper signals intelligence & deeper Pakistan-US cooperation will not necessarily lead to more peace or stability.
remote war capability.But precision munitions, sharper signals intelligence & deeper Pakistan-US cooperation will not necessarily lead to more peace or stability.
2021’s single greatest pressure point?
The continued unchallenged taxless freedoms & luxuries that the elite enjoy.
Military & civilian, secular & religious, private sector or bureaucratic, the Pakistani elite stands on ground that has been shifting for many years.
The continued unchallenged taxless freedoms & luxuries that the elite enjoy.
Military & civilian, secular & religious, private sector or bureaucratic, the Pakistani elite stands on ground that has been shifting for many years.
And thus, a prayer for 2021 from Sunan Ibn Majah,
“O Allah protect me from my front, from behind me, from my right and from my left, and from above me… and I seek refuge in Your Magnificence from being taken unaware from beneath me.” https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/769161-a-prayer-for-2021
“O Allah protect me from my front, from behind me, from my right and from my left, and from above me… and I seek refuge in Your Magnificence from being taken unaware from beneath me.” https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/769161-a-prayer-for-2021
