Quick thread with some thoughts following @NicolaSturgeon ‘s various statements/appearances this week (and mine on @ScotlandTonight last night) for anyone who finds it of interest....

Firstly, the second strain is pretty rotten luck for all the UK’s leaders, coming at a time where we might otherwise have been optimistic about the vaccination race.

That has let to a second unenviable decision to stop deaths now (from covid) and risk deaths later (from lockdown; undiagnosed cancer, mental ill health, poverty, alcoholism etc etc etc). To decide to focus on the former is very much in line with other countries around the world.

On compliance, I’m a bit sceptical tbh. We know more now than we did then. This is good and bad. Good because we know how dangerous Covid is to old people and sick people. Very. Not just a theory anymore. We know they need protected.

But bad because we also know that Covid is *not* dangerous to younger and healthier people. There are anomalies of course, and long covid and so on, but basically if that cohort gets it the stats show they’re likely not to be ill. And therefore more likely to break the rules.

Furthermore, with the vaccine close, I’d have some concerns about people being more relaxed. Given how much more contagious this strain appears to be, that’s obviously highly dangerous for those at-risk groups.

The key discussion yesterday/today has obviously been about schools. This is justified because of the effect not just on education - any nation’s most important public service - but on parents’ ability to work and thereby keep a drowning economy’s head above water.

Because remember that key workers whose kids will be in school tend to be in the public sector - doing a critical job for us but not growing the economy. Private sector workers tend not to be in key worker categories.

I don’t think this is the FM saying schools are not safe. I think it’s the FM saying all that goes with a kid going to school (parents mixing, more bodies in small spaces etc) tips the balance of risk towards too much hospital attendance.

And critically let’s remember a bit of a taboo point - teachers who are catching covid are likely (according to medical/scientific evidence) to be catching it socially or in the staff room - not from the kids, at least not at primary level.

I understand that parents are frustrated and angry and anxious and all the rest. I’m one of them. But the FM is not relishing the prospect of closing schools. Obviously. So if you’re implying she is, don’t be so daft.

I also understand why some teachers might be apprehensive, just as doctors, bus drivers, shopkeepers, police officers etc might have been during the last year. But that’s why we make these environments - for all these workers like my wife, a doctor - as safe as possible.

I won’t go back over all the basics - everyone knows them. Paediatricians, mental health professionals, child protection etc, all agree the costs of closures outweigh the benefits of closures. But as I’ve said before the FM has to have more lenses than that.

I also continue to be dismayed by the behaviour of the EIS. Their PR this week on the costs to poor kids was both shameless and shameful - from the same small group of highly paid mafioso who have been agitating for the schools to close since August, and threatening strikes.

Here’s what I hope the FM and DFM will consider now - and I’m painfully aware of the potential confirmation bias of this as a parent of 4 primary age kids - but I think primaries and secondaries now need to be considered separately. For three reasons:

A. Transmission. We know that there was some increased evidence of transmission in secondaries in December, and that as kids get older they transmit more. But this remained largely absent in primaries.

B. Risk. The younger the child, the less risk of illness as a result of catching covid. Effectively no risk for primary age children. And primary teachers are I’m told younger on average than secondary, so low risk of catching *and* low risk of illness, far less hospitalisation

C. Online learning. Very poor at primary level last time, much better for secondaries, *and* the older the child, the better they can cope with remote learning *and* the older the child the more a parent can work while online learning happens.

I’m hopeful the ERG will be considering this for policy post 18th January.

I’m certain the FM wants to send kids back ASAP.

I’m worried the EIS - which doesn’t - will make it very difficult.

ENDS