Thread by @DFBeanCounter, And so begins my apology tour for the 2020 season.This will look [...]

And so begins my apology tour for the 2020 season.

This will look at how I came to the conclusions that I did, and the lessons learned.

Up first,

TERRY MCLAURIN.

I think its appropriate to start at the beginning, I thought Terry was a terrible prospect, I did this BPP process on him after his rookie season to show how poor his prospect profile was. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1235761299713183744?s=20

https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1235761299713183744?s=20

It should be noted I did a pretty substantial overhaul on the process in August of 2020, Terry's grade didnt change, he was still a major bust candidate as a rookie.

Here is an example of me being d-e-d wrong about this one. Terry was the obvious choice and I botched. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1251032365612142592?s=20

https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1251032365612142592?s=20

Here is me looking at rookie year Yards per route run. My conclusion, you dont want no Terry. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1260068638251335681?s=20

https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1260068638251335681?s=20

Here I am showing you that NOBODY dominates at Ohio State. This tweet was bathed in sarcasm. lol

I was right, players do dominate. I was wrong that it mattered for Terry. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1261155074983686145?s=20

https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1261155074983686145?s=20

Here is me making a bet that I am going to be paying for for a LONG time. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1272353531803004929?s=20

https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1272353531803004929?s=20

So here is the question. Was I wrong or did it just not work out.

I was VERY VERY wrong. This was something that if I was a better analyst I'd have seen coming.

Apparently the second part of this thread didnt post for some reason.

So lets continue.

I was determined to find a better way to evaluate how these players would perform after their rookie year.

Enter: Sophomore comps.

This was where I got it wrong.

This info was out there for the taking and I hadnt found a way to successfully meld a college profile with first year metrics.

I am always interested in the journey, which is to say, are they blazing or their own trail, or following a known path

Sophomore comps are a combination of rookie year stats and metrics like, @PFF grade, PPG, ADP Trends, combined with their prospect profile.

I HATED seeing those comps that show "everyone with > yards per target than the player I am hyping and saying, 'see! he's Odell Beckham!"

I think there is more to it than that and these sophomore comps I think prove that out. In the prior example you would also get the Kelvin Benjamin's and Eddie Royale's in a blanket comp for Terry McLaurin and their prospect grades are a lot closer to Terry than they are OBJ.

So the goal is to combine everything and see what players with a similar journey look like.

In so doing, here is Terry's comp list. These are all guys with major question marks and outstanding rookie years.

You wont see him comped to the best prospects of all time in this.

Needless to say, if I had grinded the spreadsheets a little harder last year, we wouldnt be in this mess. We'd be joining the galaxy brains that saw through the noise and are going to bear the fruit of identifying Terry as a truly great player with high odds of success.

I have failed you and I cant take it back, we will miss out on Terry likely for the rest of his career.

But in failure, we always hope to learn a lesson and improve. I think the sophomore comps are that lesson.

Here are some of the older classes put through the sophomore comps process.

2017 https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1339797584622194690?s=20