I have made a weekly vaccination model to estimate:
- How many vaccines we have in Ireland each week?
- How many can/are we vaccinating each week?
- Are we keeping pace with deliveries? (looks like yes)

I'll explain below

1/

Disclaimer - The numbers in this table are all estimates and they draw on comments from Ministers and officials which could change!

2/

Ireland is scheduled to receive 40,000 doses of the @pfizer vaccine each week in January and February.

My model does not account for other vaccines yet to be approved which will add to the stock.

2/ https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/all-nursing-home-residents-staff-to-get-first-vaccine-dose-this-month-says-donnelly-1.4449080

While we get 40,000 each week, only 20,000 can be given as first doses, since the second dose will be given 3 weeks later.

It is kept aside.

I assume this remains the case.

3/

Ireland received 40,000 doses this week and last week, so there should be 80,000 delivered.

Only half can be given now, so 40,000 is available.

@DonnellyStephen says 35,000 will be vaccinated this week.

Add to the 1,800 already vaccinated and you get to 36,800

4/

So while last week we were a bit behind (18,200 "potential extra vaccinations" on the table), this week we should catch up (only 3,200 potential extra).

5/

While 35,000 this week is good going, it doesn't look like we have the stock to keep the pace going.

I estimate we fall back to ~19,640 first doses per week for the following 5 weeks.

6/

That drop isn't something the health system can increase without extra deliveries. Approval of the Moderna vaccine by @EMA_News will help (no rush lads), but I can't add it to the model yet.

7/

The model ends at the first week in February where 135,000 have received a first dose.

This reconciles with @MichealMartinTD's comments today that 135,000 will have been given a second dose by the end of February.

8/ https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-vows-135000-people-will-receive-covid-jab-by-end-of-february-1059906.html

Throughout January, it appears there will be a constant stock of vaccines of between 3,200 and 5,000 doses that sit in my table as "potential extra vaccinations".

9/

I'm not too worried about this because the number is relatively constant. It's not like we have 10,000 sitting idle one week then 25,000 the next week.

The rollout appears to be keeping pace with deliveries.

"On track" by my own bar set last week.

10/ https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1343639745260376067

Revisiting this poll, it doesn't appear that health system rollout will be the issue now (that could change).

What we need is more delivered doses!

Get approving @EMA_News !!

END

11/11 https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1343235971530297348