The state of Georgia is doing a runoff (repeat) of its senate elections today. Two seats for grabs. This represents the single most important event for Bitcoin in 2021.

Democrats winning those 2 seats would tie Democrats and Republicans at 50 seats each. In the event of a tie, the US vice president breaks the tie, so a 2 seat win would give Democrats control of the senate, leading to increased fiscal profligacy.

Odds as of now. Been tilting towards Democrats steadily since November. This has been driving the dollar lower since.

The bitcoin thesis would benefit greatly from Dems winning and increased fiscal spending. Some argue the opposite: a GOP victory would actually be best for bitcoin, as one of the candidates, Kelly Loeffler, is Bakkt's former CEO. Her odds unfortunately are very low regardless.

Multi asset consequences

Dems wins = blue sweep. Dollar bearish, bullish bitcoin, precious metals, green energy and cannabis. Steeper yield curve, bad for tech stocks, overall impact on stocks unclear.

GOP wins: split house, status quo. Opposite consequences. S&P higher.

Increasing Dem odds have been pushing assets since November, from bitcoin to the dollar to yields, all expressions of the same macro trade with their own particularities. Check the US yield curve steepening (vaccine news also played a role in that)

Can follow live results here: http://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/georgia/senate-runoff-map-perdue-ossoff-20210105/