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1/ My new essay on the long run effect of tech progress on the distribution of power: https://elliotolds.com/technologyandpower
Is the West on an inevitable path toward Chinese-style authoritarianism? Or can the cypherpunk dream of using tech to protect privacy and freedom be realized?
Is the West on an inevitable path toward Chinese-style authoritarianism? Or can the cypherpunk dream of using tech to protect privacy and freedom be realized?
2/ This is partly a response to @SamoBurja's argument that centralization of power is inevitable and to @wolftivy's similar claims on Twitter and on the @palladiummag podcast.
https://palladiummag.com/2020/10/19/the-centralized-internet-is-inevitable/
https://palladiummag.com/2020/10/30/palladium-podcast-46-samo-burja-on-why-regulating-online-speech-is-unavoidable/ https://twitter.com/wolftivy/status/1197295213565239296
https://palladiummag.com/2020/10/19/the-centralized-internet-is-inevitable/
https://palladiummag.com/2020/10/30/palladium-podcast-46-samo-burja-on-why-regulating-online-speech-is-unavoidable/ https://twitter.com/wolftivy/status/1197295213565239296
3/ The biggest factor Burja and Tivy neglect is @mgurri's thesis in The Revolt of the Public.
The Internet has already had a huge decentralizing effect on production of and access to information, which has eroded the authority of institutions and elites.
The Internet has already had a huge decentralizing effect on production of and access to information, which has eroded the authority of institutions and elites.
4/ Before the Internet, everyone was deplatformed by default.
Big tech companies do censor speech and deplatform people but the relevant question is how this compares to what existed before the Internet, not whether the current situation is ideal.
Big tech companies do censor speech and deplatform people but the relevant question is how this compares to what existed before the Internet, not whether the current situation is ideal.
5/ We're now exposed to more narratives critical of mainstream institutions and elites than ever.
Alex Jones was deplatformed by most big tech companies, but his YouTube appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast was watched by 60% more people than watch ABC Nightly News.
Alex Jones was deplatformed by most big tech companies, but his YouTube appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast was watched by 60% more people than watch ABC Nightly News.
6/ China shows us what can happen when big tech platforms are captured by an authoritarian government, but it's not a given that such capture will happen in the West.
7/ China started from a place of high information control over its citizens as the Internet developed, and took steps to maintain this control.
Western governments have already lost information control and suffered the erosion of legitimacy that follows.
Western governments have already lost information control and suffered the erosion of legitimacy that follows.
8/ How easy is it for governments to transition from low information control and low legitimacy to the type of control needed to implement authoritarianism? And how can this be done while drowning in Internet-based criticism?
To do this governments need the tech industry's help.
To do this governments need the tech industry's help.
9/ Western tech platforms do not want to create authoritarian governments that rule over them. This locks them into a subservient role, subject to the ruling party's whims
Zuckerberg does not envy the position of Jack Ma, who was forced out of power by the CCP and is now missing
Zuckerberg does not envy the position of Jack Ma, who was forced out of power by the CCP and is now missing
10/ In the West the balance of power between tech, governments, and the public is far more evenly distributed than in China.
In the struggle between big tech and Western governments the support of the public is critical, making both groups cautious about abusing their power.
In the struggle between big tech and Western governments the support of the public is critical, making both groups cautious about abusing their power.
11/ We're in the midst of a massive global rollout of end-to-end encryption.
Digital privacy advocates had tried and failed to get people to use end-to-end encryption for decades. Now two billion WhatsApp and Signal users regularly use it.
Digital privacy advocates had tried and failed to get people to use end-to-end encryption for decades. Now two billion WhatsApp and Signal users regularly use it.
12/ Zoom also just released an end to end encryption feature.
For the first time in history normal people regularly communicate remotely in a way that governments and companies lack the power to listen in on.
For the first time in history normal people regularly communicate remotely in a way that governments and companies lack the power to listen in on.
13/ Burja is skeptical of cryptocurrency's decentralizing effects because it hasn't yet fulfilled its promise 12 years after its creation.
It was 25 years between when PGP (difficult to use encryption software) was released and end to end encryption became widely used.
It was 25 years between when PGP (difficult to use encryption software) was released and end to end encryption became widely used.
14/ It took over 20 years for the decentralizing effects of the Internet on the flow of information to become significant.
There are clear signs of steady progress towards a new financial system which has the potential to separate money from state control.
There are clear signs of steady progress towards a new financial system which has the potential to separate money from state control.
15/ The thesis put forth in The Sovereign Individual and recently popularized by @balajis and @naval seems to be playing out. https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1337755658129534979
16/ The Internet (especially post-covid) is making it less important to be in any one place. We can now get close to the center of economic and intellectual activity from any location. This increases competitive pressure on governments and tilts power toward individuals.
17/ Given these significant decentralizing forces, the inevitability of more centralization of power seems far from clear.
For those who prefer to avoid an authoritarian future it would be a mistake to prematurely accept that fate.
For those who prefer to avoid an authoritarian future it would be a mistake to prematurely accept that fate.
18/ I skipped over a lot of detail and many arguments in this tweetstorm -- see the essay linked in the first tweet for more.
19/ Thanks to @PashaKamyshev, @nataliadashan, @jorgyak, @jpurd17, @MLescrauwaet, @harshcopywriter, @jenalden, and @hasufl for providing feedback on early drafts.
