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The big blank gameweek thread.
Over this last week I have performed a number of different calculations in order to work out what the best formula of players will be to score the highest number of points.
In this thread I will show my results and what they conclude.
#FPL
Over this last week I have performed a number of different calculations in order to work out what the best formula of players will be to score the highest number of points.
In this thread I will show my results and what they conclude.
#FPL
Firstly, we take a look at the likelihood’s of each team keeping a clean sheet this week.
It’s clear that a Manchester City defender is absolutely necessary. It’s also a given that both Newcastle and United defenders are good options this week. https://twitter.com/essentials_fpl/status/1345874655131873290
It’s clear that a Manchester City defender is absolutely necessary. It’s also a given that both Newcastle and United defenders are good options this week. https://twitter.com/essentials_fpl/status/1345874655131873290
We should obviously own a goalkeeper from one of these teams but which one?
This is entirely down to the likelihood’s of save points and bonus points. Darlow would be my pick, as Sheffield take and miss a lot of half chances, allowing him to rack up the save points.
This is entirely down to the likelihood’s of save points and bonus points. Darlow would be my pick, as Sheffield take and miss a lot of half chances, allowing him to rack up the save points.
As for the chance of a team scoring 2+ goals, I calculated Manchester City to be top so would suggest owning at least one, if not two attackers from there. The same with Manchester United, who were ranked second and not far behind.
Try to avoid Brighton, Burnley, or Sheffield. https://twitter.com/essentials_fpl/status/1346079877171183620
Try to avoid Brighton, Burnley, or Sheffield. https://twitter.com/essentials_fpl/status/1346079877171183620
I then also calculated each individual players chance of a single return, whether that be a goal or an assist.
As expected, Bruno was top followed by De Bruyne. They are both absolutely must owns on the free hit this gameweek. To go without would be very bold. https://twitter.com/essentials_fpl/status/1346175326712434690
As expected, Bruno was top followed by De Bruyne. They are both absolutely must owns on the free hit this gameweek. To go without would be very bold. https://twitter.com/essentials_fpl/status/1346175326712434690
Despite Aguero being high for a goal or an assist, I would avoid. It’s unlikely he will start, let alone play those 75+ minutes to even fulfil his expected points.
Instead, Kane and Wilson would be my two front men of choice.
Instead, Kane and Wilson would be my two front men of choice.
I noticed a trend that once again midfielders have the best value and no doubt this will be the same this week, with so many different options in midfield.
A big tip of mine would be to play five in midfield.
A big tip of mine would be to play five in midfield.
I also used my metrics and calculations to predict the xG of each team this gameweek. The results don’t seem too surprising:
This should give you a rough indication of how the games will play out. Obviously, use your own predictions of results to determine your decisions also. https://twitter.com/essentials_fpl/status/1346511739605704705
This should give you a rough indication of how the games will play out. Obviously, use your own predictions of results to determine your decisions also. https://twitter.com/essentials_fpl/status/1346511739605704705
As for captaincy. It’s a coin toss between Bruno Fernandes and Kevin De Bruyne. They are both capable of big hauls.
However, I’m leaning towards this man for all the reasons stated in this tweet, and many more: https://twitter.com/essentials_fpl/status/1346209119540305921
However, I’m leaning towards this man for all the reasons stated in this tweet, and many more: https://twitter.com/essentials_fpl/status/1346209119540305921
Now here’s another tip. Having a strong bench is an extreme safety net. Just make sure you have at least two players on your bench that you wouldn’t mind coming on. I would probably suggest Kilman at 4.1 or Clark at 4.5. They could both return and are cheap enough to bench.
This all has led to my current draft. However, there are still multiple changes I would consider. The biggest of them would be Stones instead of Luke Shaw. https://twitter.com/essentials_fpl/status/1346264919117877248
Thank you for reading. I hope that some of this allowed the help for you to make decisions on your free hit team.
If you have any questions regarding your free hit team then feel free to just reply to this tweet and I’ll make sure to answer.
Likes and RTs are appreciated.
If you have any questions regarding your free hit team then feel free to just reply to this tweet and I’ll make sure to answer.
Likes and RTs are appreciated.
