Probably.

Money could stay cheap for a long time. There is a ton of negative yielding debt abroad and liquidity ready to flood our market at the drop of a hat.

Rates will likely stay low. Gov will probably keep subsidizing these loans. You’ll probably be okay.

But what about that 25% probability event?

That inflation takes off, rates go up and debt gets tougher to get and more expensive?

You’re totally screwed.

So if you’re not well capitalized wirh the ability to put 25-30% down on your property with another 25-50% in reserve, you’re at risk.

And if your counting on rent growth you’re at risk.

And if you’re counting on cap rates and interest rates staying you’re at risk.

A lot of stuff out of your control.

So my advise is that you shouldn’t.

Real estate isn’t for you unless you either have your own cash or have investors ready to do deals with you.

So the folks telling you to “just do a deal” maybe should just be ignored.

Learn and study and plan, sure.

Chase deals. Underwrite deals. Develop your operational advantage. All of that.

But maybe you should focus on making money another way and spend some time just being patient.

Easy for me to say all this as I’m 5 years in and have a lot more to lose now.

We all took risks early.

If you have a clear value-add play and the chops to pull it off then throw this advice out and get after it!

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