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WAPO tracked 1000 fatal police shootings last year - the highest on record. But caution against concluding from this that police use of deadly force is increasing.
First, the total has been approx. 1000/year for 6 years now - the yearly differences have been very small. https://twitter.com/TomJackmanWP/status/1346475035888812033
First, the total has been approx. 1000/year for 6 years now - the yearly differences have been very small. https://twitter.com/TomJackmanWP/status/1346475035888812033
Second, the denominator hasn't been consistent across years. For example, in 2015, the Bureau of Justice Statistics estimated that 53.5 million people had at least one interaction with a cop. In 2018, they estimated 61.5 million.
https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cbpp18st.pdf
https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cbpp18st.pdf
If you trust those estimates, then in 2015, a fatal shooting occurred in:
994 / 53.5M = ~0.0019% of all interactions.
In 2018, a fatal shooting occurred in:
990 / 61.5M = ~0.0016% of all interactions.
Almost a 16% reduction, despite just 4 fewer fatal shootings.
994 / 53.5M = ~0.0019% of all interactions.
In 2018, a fatal shooting occurred in:
990 / 61.5M = ~0.0016% of all interactions.
Almost a 16% reduction, despite just 4 fewer fatal shootings.
Third, police often shoot people who don't ultimately die. Yet these incidents are also uses of deadly force by officers. The problem is we have no idea how often this happens nationally, because we don't systematically collect the data.
A few states compile data on both fatal and nonfatal police shootings. Texas has been doing it since 2015. They've averaged 79 fatal shootings and 71 nonfatal shootings per year.
Colorado recently compiled data spanning 2010-2019. In that time, they averaged ~25 fatal shootings and 15 nonfatal shootings per year.
California started compiling data on fatal and nonfatal police shootings in 2016. They've averaged 137 fatal shootings and 110 nonfatal shootings per year since then.
(Not shown here, but they also track when officers shoot and miss citizens)
(Not shown here, but they also track when officers shoot and miss citizens)
Finally, the @TB_Times compiled data on fatal and nonfatal police shootings in Florida from 2010 to 2014. During that time, Florida police averaged 89 fatal shootings and 75 nonfatal shootings per year.
The difference between a fatal and a nonfatal shooting is at least partially a function of luck. Does the bullet hit or narrowly miss a vital organ? How quickly can the victim be transported to a Trauma Care Center? https://jnix.netlify.app/post/post2-fatality-rates/
So if we assumed that in every state, about 45% of all people injured by police gunfire *survived*, it'd mean databases like WAPO's miss roughly 820 police shootings per year that, for whatever reason, didn't result in death.
It's crazy to me that we don't know how often police officers shoot people in the United States. We should.
