In case anyone needs to know this, my estimate of when the new strain of Covid-19 becomes the dominant strain here in Ottawa is March 2nd, 2021, with a rough confidence interval of [February 16, March 30].
/c @dfisman @JenniferRobson8 @VoiceOfFranky @imgrund @NightShiftMD

That's based on 4 reported cases so far, and a daily rate of 104 new cases/day, using an R(t) of 1.0 for the common strain and R(t) of 1.55 [1.4, 1.7] for the new strain, and 3.2 to 5 cases in the population per detected case.

It may be delayed by 2-3 weeks if the 4 known cases weren't in the past day, but were detected over the past week instead. That said, there could be circulating pools elsewhere in Ontario, Quebec or incoming new cases from overseas travel that could accelerate this.