Finally have some time post duty to explain something. I have been personally and professionally abused & ridiculed but it's time i explained scientifically . As a doctor,who was tired of duties i was angry that hotels,shopping malls were all full and even more on festivals (1/n)

Despite all these places being open,there was no 2nd wave in TN. My initial thought was that the government is not reporting properly. Honestly,all govt data across the world is under reported. Yet i was sure more cases would come but it didn't.Cases dropped by 70-75% (2/n)

It is a doctors duty to keep him/her up to date with latest information and a particular article caught my attention. I was an article published by AIIMS and an American center
where they analyzed the cells which protect us against COVID which are known as T and B cells (3/n)

From June 2020,there have been multiple reports published in major centers that people who have NEVER HAD COVID , HAVE PROTECTION AGAINST THE VIRUS

Links - 1 . https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0092867420306103
2. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z?flip=true
3. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2598-9?fbclid=IwAR1uC4is-jOyqcUpVNbxVoaDa-XxfFVPT9jn64MiLB29PNEose5QSRb5LVY

4. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6512/89.abstract
(4/n)

These articles mention a concept which has been there in medicine for a long time called cross reactivity. First time you are infected with a virus,a cell in your body called the memory T cell stores information about the virus so that it can fight it next time (5/n)

Basically memory T cell will store information in the form of molecules about each part of virus structure. THE TWIST here is that, if have been exposed to a cold virus which has some features similar COVID, your body can attack COVID the first time itself (6/n)

Once it attacks Covid, people may have no symptoms (ASYMPTOMATIC) or mild symptoms.But this response is very VARIABLE, because it changes from country to country because each place has it's own cold viruses

So this has been analyzed in AIIMS with an INDIAN POPULATION (7/n)

They analyzed blood from patients who recovered from COVID and those who have never been exposed. The study revealed 3 major findings

1. Almost 70% of the population they studied had the cells that showed cross reactive property

Continued (8/n)

2. ALMOST 35% OF PEOPLE WHO WERE NEVER EXPOSED EVEN HAD ANTIGEN TO FIGHT THE VIRUS (even new strain)

3. Even if you have NO immunity,had COVID and recovered,you were safe for 5 months or even more (9/n)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.16.20232967v1.full-text

Here is a link to the study.

You can analyze it for yourself (10/n)

BUT this is a very recent discovery. In order to contain cases first,we needed very strict lock-down and very gradual relaxations. So in Kerala, they were very strict and contained COVID but when lockdown was relaxed,because many were not exposed,cases jumped up (11/n)

In Tamil Nadu,initially there was proper lock down but unlock protocols were not good .Hence more people got infected and we had more cases . Same scenario in AP/Telengana
(12/n)

As a result of poor unlock protocols, some states including TN reached it's peak before and was in a steady decline.If you can recall correctly, there was one sudden rise to more than 1000 cases after decline & then it fell below again

After that hotels,malls opened (13/n)

Hotels,malls,kalyanan mandapam were all open but we didn't see a rise after that. We didn't see a spike after christmas or new year as well

I have listed the reasons for that so far (14/n)

I would be fooling you if i said that we escaped because of cross reactivity . However both USA and Singapore found that when compared to their population, Indians had 70% cross reactivity while they had 45% . (15/n)

But along with the increased cross reacitivty, poor unlock protocols made more people get exposed to virus and hence they have developed protective antibodies that can last to 8 months (16/n)

Link - https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/12/two-studies-find-covid-19-antibodies-last-8-months

Right now,nearly 100-150 people will be there in a popular hotel or at a marriage reception. In a hotel,no one will wear masks.

Air travel has resumed with 100% occupancy and yet there are so many using it to take trips and go to functions (17/n)

All the above mentioned places are basically closed space with AC and yet we have not seen a spike .

This is why i said nothing is going to happen if you increase occupancy from 50 to 100%. (18/n)

If it was my decision, i would not open a single theater,hotel or marriage hall till everyone who is at risk gets 2 shots of a good vaccine BUT since it's "ok" to even fly without proper ppe at full capacity, its "ok" for theaters to have 100 % occupancy (19/n)

Right now there is no difference between eating at crowded thalapaakatti for one hour and watching a movie for 3 hours. At least for the movie, you don't have to remove your mask !

So that's . Let me know what you think ,good or bad
Thanks :) (20/20)